Impact of Climate Change over the Arabian Peninsula

Abstract:

Efforts are made to investigate the spatial and temporal climate change–related variations in precipitation as well as the nature of the factors controlling these variations over the Arabian Peninsula (AP). The Climate Prediction Centers (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) temporal (January 1979 to November 2011) data was used to investigate the nature and magnitude of climate variations over the AP. Trends in CMAP data were examined over the winter and summer seasons throughout Period I (1979-1995) and Period II (1996-2010). Our findings indicate: (1) reversals in precipitation patterns were observed in Periods I and II, where areas witnessing an increase in precipitation in Period I showed a decrease in precipitation throughout Period II and vice versa, (1) the spatial distribution of the areas that witnessed an increase in precipitation during Period I are consistent with the intensification of the monsoons during this period, (2) an increase in precipitation during Period II over the northwestern and southeastern sections of AP is here attributed to intensification of the westerlies, and (3) the general similarity of annual trend patterns to the summer trend and to winter trend suggest that the annual trends are largely controlled by monsoonal wind regimes in Period I and by the westerlies in Period II. Global warming could be causing a rise in sea surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, enhancing evaporation, intensifying precipitation from the westerlies, and causing shifts in the monsoonal fronts and a decrease precipitation in the southwestern parts of the AP.