Modelling the impact of climate change on the extent of cloud forest in the Brazilian Serra da Mantiqueira
Tuesday, 7 June 2016
Patrícia Vieira Pompeu1, Marco Aurélio Leite Fontes1, Mark Mulligan2, Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira3, Inácio Thomaz Bueno1 and L.A. (Sampurno) Bruijnzeel4, (1)Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), Departamento de Ciências Florestais, Lavras, Brazil, (2)Kings College London, Geography, London, United Kingdom, (3)Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, Unidade de Botânica Sistemática, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, (4)King's College London, Geography, London, United Kingdom
Abstract:
Anthropogenic actions promoting climatic warming and drying are a threat to montane cloud forests (MCF) worldwide, along with habitat loss. This study aimed to map the distribution of Atlantic MCF in the Serra da Mantiqueira (SdM), SE Brazil, and assess how climate change will affect these forests in view of their importance to regional hydrology and biodiversity. Current and future potential distribution of MCF in the SdM was predicted using the Maxent algorithm based on habitat occurrence records. The spatial distribution modelling used a range of standard bioclimatic, topographic, hydrometeorological and fog-related variables. Current and future hydrometeorological and fog-related layers were produced using the online WaterWorld model. The use of such variables in spatial distribution modelling is a highly novel approach. Impact on MCF extent in the SdM by 2070 was evaluated using the above variables for two scenarios of CO2 emission, viz. RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 (modest scenario) and RCP 8.5 (worst case). The current area potentially covered with MCF was estimated at 5414 km2, decreasing to 12.2% of the current area in the modest scenario (659 km2) vs. 4.8% (261 km2) for the worst scenario. Only 19% of the current area under MCF enjoys full protection, which may decrease to 5.5% (RCP4.5) and 2.6% (RCP8.5) in future. Thus, the unique biodiversity and ecohydrology of MCF in the SdM are severely at risk. Ensuring protection of the currently identified areas having persistently suitable climatic conditions for MCF is particularly urgent. Otherwise, MCF in the SdM may largely disappear, also as a result of coffee cultivation advancing steadily to higher elevations.
