Identifying the Climate Signals of Early 21st Century Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract:

We review recent research that has attempted to identify the climate signals associated with a succession of moderate early 21st century volcanic eruptions. After variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is statistically removed, volcanically-induced signals are detectable in a range of different climate observations, including top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, satellite-based estimates of atmospheric temperature and moisture, and sea surface temperature. We use model simulations to gain insights into the impact of volcanic forcing uncertainty on volcanic signal detection, and to explore whether information on total column volcanic aerosol burdens yields more confident signal detection than use of stratospheric aerosol burdens alone. Some of the "lessons learned" from these investigations have relevance for the design and analysis of CMIP6 simulations of historical climate change.