A Phase Space for the Structure and Near-system Environment of Tropical Convective Systems

The dynamical and thermodynamical processes responsible for the evolution of a loosely-organized tropical convective system into a highly-organized, mature tropical cyclone are still poorly understood. Despite a number of advances in both research and operations, forecasting tropical cyclogenesis remains a challenge. The present study puts forth a specially designed phase space for tropical convective systems which quantifies the state of the system structure and the near-system environment. In a research setting, the phase space will be used to support a detailed composite study of tropical convective systems in two reanalysis datasets: CFSR and ERA-Interim. In a forecast application, the phase space algorithm processes operational model output and produces a diagram which visually summarizes the evolution of a number of key variables.