Ensemble Forecast of Major Solar Flares

We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for solar flares of M and X classes. Using the forecasts from 4 flare-predictor methods hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC), this model provides an ensemble forecast by combining flaring probabilities from individual methods. Performance-based combination weights are calculated using a procedure that applies a threshold to the probability time series and then minimizes the chi squared parameter between the model and observed flare time series. We used a sample of 13 recent active regions that produced several M- and X-class flares. We will discuss the results of the new ensemble approach and show how the method can be used in a real-time environment for flare predictions.