Quantifying widespread canopy cover decline through the course of a beetle kill epidemic in Colorado with remote sensing of snow

Since the mid-1990s, outbreaks of aggressive bark beetle species have caused extensive forest morality across 600,000 km² of North-American forests, killing over 17,800 km² of forest in Colorado alone. This mortality has resulted in a widespread, spatially heterogeneous decline of forest canopies, which in turn exerts strong controls on the accumulation and melt of the snowpack. In the Western United States, where approximately 70-80% of total annual runoff originates as mountain snowmelt, it is important to monitor and quantify changes in forest canopy in snow-dominated catchments.

To quantify annual values of forest canopy cover, this research develops a metric from time series of daily fractional snow covered area (FSCA) from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow covered area and grain size (MODSCAG) algorithm. In areas where soil and rock are completely snow-covered, a land pixel is composed only of forest canopy and snow. Following a snowfall event, FSCA initially rises rapidly, as snow is intercepted in the canopy, and then declines, as snow unloads from the canopy. The lower of these local minima form a threshold representative of snow-free canopy conditions, which serves as a spatially explicit metric of forest canopy. Investigation of a site in southern Colorado with over 40% spruce beetle mortality shows a statistically significant decrease of canopy cover, from 76 (±4)% pre-infestation to 55 (±8)% post-infestation (t=-5.1, p<0.01). Additionally, this yearly parameterization of forest canopy is well correlated (ρ=0.76, p<0.01) with an independent product of yearly crown mortality derived from U.S. Forest Service Aerial Detection Surveys. Future work will examine this relationship across varied ecologic settings and geographic locations, and incorporate field measurements of species-specific canopy change after beetle kill.