M6.0 South Napa Earthquake Forecasting on the basis of jet stream precursor

Currently earthquake prediction research methods can be divided into the crust change, radon concentration, well water level, animal behavior, Very high frequency (VHF) signals, GPS/TEC in ionospheric variations, thermal infrared radiation (TIR) anomalies. Before major earthquakes (M> 6) occurred, jet stream in the epicenter area will interrupt or velocity flow lines cross. That meaning is that before earthquake happen, atmospheric pressure in high altitude suddenly dropped during 6~12 hours (Wu & Tikhonov, 2014). This technique has been used to predict the strong earthquakes in real time, and then pre-registered on the website. For example: M6.0 Northern California earthquake on 2014/08/24(figure1) , M6.6 Russia earthquake on 2013/10/12(figure2), As far as 2014/08/24 M6.6 earthquake in CA, USA, the front end of the 60knots speed line was at the S.F. on 2014/06/16 12:00, and then after 69 days ,M6.1 earthquake happened. We predicted that magnitude is larger than 5.5 but the period is only 30 days on 2014/07/16 . The deviation of predicted point was about 70 km. Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere (LAI) coupling model may be explained this phenomenon : Ionization of the air produced by an increased emanation of radon at epicenter. The water molecules in the air react with these ions, and then release heat. The heat result in temperature rise in the air. They are also accompanied by a large-scale change in the atmospheric pressure and jet streams morphology.We obtain satisfactory accuracy of estimation of the epicenter location. As well we define the short alarm period. That's the positive aspects of our forecast. However, estimates of magnitude jet contain a big uncertainty.

Reference:

H.C Wu, I.N. Tikhonov, 2014, ”Jet streams anomalies as possible short-term precursors of earthquakes with M>6.0”, Research in geophysics, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4081/ rg.2014.4939

http://www.pagepress.org/journals/index.php/rg/article/view/rg.2014.4939