The 2014 M 6.0 South Napa Earthquake in the Context of the Earthquake Cycle in the San Francisco Bay Area

The 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake is the second M ≥ 5.5 earthquake to occur in the San Francisco Bay region since the 1989 M 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake. This poster will examine how this earthquake fits into the earthquake history of the Bay region, which has shown considerable variation in the rate of moderate (M 5.5-6.5) earthquakes. A number of models have been developed to explain these changes in moderate earthquake rates, including the Accelerating Moment Release model (e.g., Sykes and Jaumé, Nature, 1990; Bufe and Varnes, J. Geophys. Res., 1993) and the Stress Shadow model (e.g., Harris and Simpson, J. Geophys. Res., 1998). In addition, various groups have made projections of future earthquake activity in the San Francisco Bay region, including the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (Field et al., USGS OFR, 2008) and Bebbington et al. (PAGEOPH, 2010), utilizing different physical models for earthquake occurrence. In my poster I will compare and contrast these different views of seismicity in the Bay region and where the 2014 South Napa earthquake fits into them. In particular, I will explore what these different models imply for future moderate earthquake occurrence and hazards thereof.