Space and Ground observations of Pre-earthquake Anomalies.Prospective/Retrospective Testing for M6.0 August 24, 2014 South Napa, CA

Dimitar Ouzounov1, Menas Kafatos2, Leonid Petrov2,3, Sergey A Pulinets4, Jann-Yenq G Liu5, Y C Su6 and Shihping Chen6, (1)Chapman University, Institute for Earth, Computing, Human and Observing (Institute for ECHO), Orange, CA, United States, (2)Chapman University, CEESMO, Orange, CA, United States, (3)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Falls Church, VA, United States, (4)Space Research Institute (IKI), Moscow, Russia, (5)NCU National Central University of Taiwan, Department of Space Science and Engineering, Taoyuan, Taiwan, (6)NCU National Central University of Taiwan, Institute of Space Science, Jhongli, Taiwan
Abstract:
We integrate multiple geo-space and ground sensors for monitoring pre-earthquake geophysical anomalies that can provide significant early notification for earthquakes higher than M5.5 in California. The latest M6.0 event of August 24 in South Napa, generated a pre-earthquake signature during our prospective tests for California, and an experimental warning was documented about 17 days in advance.

We process in controlled environment different satellite and ground data for California and several other test areas by using: A.) TIR (thermal infrared) data from the NPOES recording long-wavelength radiation (OLR) and; B.) 2/GNSS, FORMOSAT (GPS/TEC); 3) Earth Observing System assimilation models from NASA and 4) ground-based gas observations and meteorological data.

On Aug 4th, we detected (prospectively) a large anomaly of OLR transient field in the atmosphere over Northern California. The location was shifted in the northeast direction about 150 km from the Aug 23rd epicentral area. Compared to the reference field of August 2004 to 2014, a rapid change in the thermals anomalous flux rate, of >1.6 W/m2 at 7:00AM LT been observed on Aug 4. The hotspot anomaly was the largest energy flux anomaly over the entire continental United States at this time. Based on the temporal and spatial estimates of the anomaly, on August 4th we issued an internal warning for a M5.5+ earthquake in Northern California within the next 1-4 weeks. Our approach needs additional continuous validation. The results could be explained within the framework of a model of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling between the crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere.

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