IN43B:
Frontiers in Uncertainty Quantification for Geophysical Modeling Posters

Session ID#: 1532

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 1:40 PM-6:00 PM
Poster Hall (Moscone_South)
Chair:  Ming Ye, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, United States
Primary Convener:  Ming Ye, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, United States
Co-conveners:  Jasper A Vrugt, UC-Irvine, Irvine, United States and Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
OSPA Liaison:  Bryan Tolson, University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Index Terms:

1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]
3265 Stochastic processes [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
3275 Uncertainty quantification [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
4430 Complex systems [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]
Virtual Option?: No
Swirl Theme: Characterizing Uncertainty

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

 
IN43B-3685
Characterizing the Effect of Different Sources of Uncertainty on Surrogates of Groundwater Models (14207)
Michael Asher1, Barry F.W. Croke2, Anthony John Jakeman1 and Luk JM Peeters3, (1)Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (2)Australian National University, Mathematical Sciences Institute; Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre, Canberra, ACT, Australia, (3)CSIRO, Land and Water, Adelaide, SA, Australia
 
IN43B-3686
UQ -- Fast Surrogates Key to New Methodologies in an Operational and Research Volcanic Hazard Forecasting System (30485)
Christopher G Hughes1, Ramona Elena Stefanescu2, Abani K Patra2, Marcus I Bursik3, Reza Madankan2, Solene Pouget1, Matt Jones4, Puneet Singla2, Tarunraj Singh2, E Bruce Pitman5, Donald Morton6 and Peter W Webley7, (1)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Geology, Buffalo, NY, United States, (2)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Buffalo, NY, United States, (3)University at Buffalo, Department of Earth Sciences, Buffalo, NY, United States, (4)University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States, (5)University at Buffalo, Department of Materials Design and Innovation, Buffalo, NY, United States, (6)Boreal Scientific Computing, LLC, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (7)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States
 
IN43B-3687
Applying Bayesian Compressed Sensing (BCS) for sensitivity analysis ofclimate model outputs that depend on a high-dimensional input space (19740)
Kenny Chowdhary, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, Zhun Guo, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Minghuai Wang, Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China, Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Bert Debusschere, Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA, United States
 
IN43B-3688
Uncertainty Quantification and Learning in Geophysical Modeling: How Information is Coded into Dynamical Models (Invited) (3459)
Hoshin Vijai Gupta, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States
 
IN43B-3690
How Well Do Earthquake Hazard Maps Work and How Good Do They Have to be? (4281)
Edward Max Brooks, Northwestern University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Evanston, IL, United States, Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States and Bruce D. Spencer, Northwestern University, Department of Statistics & Data Science and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, United States
 
IN43B-3691
New Statistical Approach to the Analysis of Hierarchical Data (Invited) (2925)
Shlomo P Neuman1,2, Alberto Guadagnini2,3 and Monica Riva2,3, (1)University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, (2)University of Arizona, Hydrology and Water Resources, Tucson, AZ, United States, (3)Politecnico di Milano, Milano, 20133, Italy
 
IN43B-3692
Multilevel Monte Carlo Method with Application to Uncertainty Quantification in Reservoir Simulation (7434)
Dan Lu1, Guannan Zhang2, Clayton Webster1 and Charlotte N Barbier1, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States
 
IN43B-3694
Probabilistic volcanic ash cloud simulations: Characterizing the uncertainty and moving into the operational environment (19382)
Peter W Webley1, Abani K Patra2, Marcus I Bursik3, E Bruce Pitman4, Jonathan Dehn1, Tarunraj Singh2, Puneet Singla2, Ramona Elena Stefanescu2, Reza Madankan2, Solene Pouget5, Matt Jones6, Donald Morton7,8 and Christopher G Hughes5, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)SUNY Buffalo, Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Buffalo, NY, United States, (3)University at Buffalo, Department of Earth Sciences, Buffalo, NY, United States, (4)University at Buffalo, Department of Materials Design and Innovation, Buffalo, NY, United States, (5)SUNY Buffalo, Deptartment of Geology, Buffalo, NY, United States, (6)SUNY Buffalo, Center for Computational Research, Buffalo, NY, United States, (7)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (8)Boreal Scientific Computing, LLC, Fairbanks, AK, United States
 
IN43B-3695
Quantification of Model Uncertainty in Modeling Mechanisms of Soil Microbial Respiration Pulses to Simulate Birch Effect (19563)
Ahmed S. Elshall, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL, United States, Ming Ye, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, United States, Guo-Yue Niu, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States and Greg Barron-Gafford, University of Arizona, School of Geography, Development & Environment, Tucson, AZ, United States
 
IN43B-3696
Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods (11174)
Ming Ye, Florida State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, United States, Peigui Liu, HeFei University of Technology, Tallahassee, FL, United States, Peter Beerli, Florida State University, Scientific Computing, Tallahassee, FL, United States, Dan Lu, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States and Mary C Hill, University of Kansas, Geology, Lawrence, KS, United States
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