S23A:
Aftershock Hazard: Forecasting Highly Time- and Space-Dependent Seismicity and Shaking after Large Mainshocks II Posters

Session ID#: 3309

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 1:40 PM-6:00 PM
Poster Hall (Moscone_South)
Chair:  Anne E Strader, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Primary Convener:  Ross S Stein, Temblor, Inc., Tiburon, United States
Co-conveners:  Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Sendai, Japan, Warner Marzocchi, University of Naples Federico II, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, Naples, Italy and Volkan Sevilgen, Temblor, Inc., Tiburon, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Sandy Steacy, University of Ulster, Coleraine, United Kingdom
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • T - Tectonophysics
Index Terms:

4342 Emergency management [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7209 Earthquake dynamics [SEISMOLOGY]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction [SEISMOLOGY]
8163 Rheology and friction of fault zones [TECTONOPHYSICS]
Virtual Option?: No
Swirl Theme: Characterizing Uncertainty

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

 
S23A-4467
Study of Active Faults in the Three Gorges Dam region by Detecting and Relocating Aftershocks (21024)
Rong Huang1, Lupei Zhu1,2 and Yixian Xu1, (1)China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, China, (2)Saint Louis University, Department of Earth, Environmental and Geospatial Science, Saint Louis, United States
 
S23A-4468
seismic space-time transformation of the periphery of the Ordos block (22801)
Ding Qi, Liu Chun Ping and Shi Yun, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States
 
S23A-4469
Effects of Aftershock Declustering in Risk Modeling: Case Study of a Subduction Sequence in Mexico (24066)
Deborah L Kane and Marleen Nyst, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States
 
S23A-4470
Inland Normal Faulting during the Mw 6.6 Iwaki Earthquake Induced By Temporal Change of Stress State after the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Japan (5712)
Ayumu Miyakawa and Makoto Otsubo, Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba, Japan
 
S23A-4471
Bayesian Predictive Distribution for the Magnitude of the Largest Aftershock (6152)
Robert Shcherbakov, University of Western Ontario, Department of Earth Sciences, London, ON, Canada
 
S23A-4472
Can We Forecast 1-Month Span Aftershock Activity from the First Day Data after the Main Shock? (11719)
Takahiro Omi1, Yosihiko Ogata2, Yoshito Hirata1 and Kazuyuki Aihara1, (1)Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, (2)Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
 
S23A-4473
Local receiver fault dependency of seismicity shut down in the 2011 Tohoku-oki stress shadow (12061)
Yuhei Suzuki1, Shinji Toda2, Keisuke Yoshida1 and Tomomi Okada3, (1)Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan, (2)Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Sendai, Japan, (3)Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
 
S23A-4474
Application of Geostatistical Methods and Machine Learning for spatio-temporal Earthquake Cluster Analysis (19545)
Andreas M Schaefer1,2, James E Daniell1 and Friedemann Wenzel1, (1)Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Geophysical Institute, Karlsruhe, Germany, (2)Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
 
S23A-4475
Probability Assessment of Mega-thrust Earthquakes in Global Subduction Zones　-from the View of Slip Deficit- (19586)
Ryoya Ikuta1, Yuta Mitsui2 and Masataka Ando1, (1)Shizuoka University, Shizuoka, Japan, (2)Shizuoka University, Geosciences, Shizuoka, Japan
 
S23A-4476
Progressive Seismic Failure, Seismic Gap, and Great Seismic Risk across the Densely Populated North China Basin (19662)
An Yin, University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Xiangjiang Yu, Jilin University, College of Earth Sciences, Changchun, China and Zhengkang Shen, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, United States
 
S23A-4477
150 Years of Coulomb Stress History Along the California-Nevada Border, USA. (8460)
Alessandro Verdecchia, Ruhr Universität Bochum, Munich, Germany and Sara Carena, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Munich, Germany
 
S23A-4478
Prediction of Future Great Earthquake Locations from Cumulative Stresses Released by Prior Earthquakes (14317)
Junhyung Lee and Tae-Kyung Hong, Yonsei University, Earth System Sciences, Seoul, South Korea
 
S23A-4479
Short-term earthquake probabilities during the L’Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy, 2009 (21523)
Giuseppe Falcone1, Maura Murru2, Jiancang Zhuang3 and Rodolfo Console2,4, (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Palermo, Italy, (2)INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (3)Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, (4)Center of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area, Potenza, Italy
 
S23A-4480
Statistics of Static Stress Earthquake Triggering (12792)
Shyam Nandan1, Guy Ouillon2, Jochen Woessner1, Didier Sornette1 and Stefan Wiemer3, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)Lithophyse, Nice, France, (3)ETH Zurich, Swiss Seismological Service, Zurich, Switzerland
 
S23A-4481
Retrospective Evaluation of Earthquake Forecasts during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence (21659)
Maximilian J Werner1,2, Warner Marzocchi3, Matteo Taroni3, Jeremy D Zechar4, Matt Gerstenberger5, Masha Liukis6, David Alan Rhoades5, Camilla Cattania7, Annemarie Christophersen5, Sebastian Hainzl7, Agnes Helmstetter8, Abigal Jimenez-Loret9, Sandy Steacy9 and Thomas H Jordan6, (1)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (2)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, (3)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (4)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (5)GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, (6)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (7)Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Potsdam, Germany, (8)ISTerre Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint Martin d'Hères, France, (9)University of Ulster, Coleraine, United Kingdom
 
S23A-4482
Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiwan: Development of a time-dependent approach and implementation of the Taiwan Earthquake Model parameters (14662)
Chung-Han Chan1,2, Yu Wang1, Yu-Ju Wang3,4, Ya-Ting Lee5, J Bruce H Shyu6, Marco Pagani7 and Graeme Weatherill8, (1)EOS, Nanyang Technological Univ., Singapore, Singapore, (2)National Central University, Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management (E-DREaM) Center, Taoyuan, Taiwan, (3)Academia Sinica, Jhongli City, Taoyuan County, Taiwan, (4)National Central Univ., Jhongli, Taiwan, (5)National Central University, Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management (E-DREaM) Center, Zhongli, Taiwan, (6)National Taiwan University, Department of Geosciences, Taipei, Taiwan, (7)GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy, (8)GEM FOUNDATION, Pavia, Italy
 
S23A-4483
Possible Interactions between the 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii Subduction Earthquake and the Transform Queen Charlotte Fault (19192)
Tiegan E Hobbs, Natural Resources Canada, NRCan-RNCan, Vancouver, BC, Canada, John F Cassidy, Geological Survey of Canada, Pacific Geoscience Centre, Sidney, BC, Canada; University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC, Canada and Stan E Dosso, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
 
S23A-4484
Data sensitivity in a hybrid STEP/Coulomb model for aftershock forecasting (22245)
Abigail Jimenez Lloret1, Sandy Steacy1 and Matt Gerstenberger2, (1)University of Ulster, Coleraine, United Kingdom, (2)GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
 
S23A-4485
Rate-and-State Southern California Earthquake Forecasts: Resolving Stress Singularities (27660)
Anne E Strader, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States and David D Jackson, University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary, and Space Science, Los Angeles, CA, United States
 
S23A-4486
Tests of remote aftershock triggering by small mainshocks using Taiwan’s earthquake catalog (15708)
Wei Peng, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan and Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Sendai, Japan
 
S23A-4487
A Century of Aftershocks Related to Large Intracontinental Earthquakes: A Seismic Behavior for Hazard Assessment. (21971)
Sodnomsambuu Gunjiin Demberel1, Antoine Schlupp2 and Ulziibat Munkhuu1, (1)Research Center for Astronomy and Geophysics, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, (2)EOST École et Observatoire des Sciences de la Terre, Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, UMR7516, Strasbourg Cedex, France
 
S23A-4488
Recent Developments within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (25288)
Masha Liukis1, Maximilian J Werner2, Danijel Schorlemmer1, John Yu3, Philip J Maechling1, Jeremy D Zechar4, Thomas H Jordan1 and The CSEP Working Group, (1)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
 
S23A-4489
Quantifying the Earthquake Clustering that Independent Sources with Stationary Rates (as Included in Current Risk Models) Can Produce. (25605)
Delphine D Fitzenz1, Marleen Nyst1, Edwin V Apel1 and Robert Muir-Wood2, (1)Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA, United States, (2)Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom
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