S22A:
Aftershock Hazard: Forecasting Highly Time- and Space-Dependent Seismicity and Shaking after Large Mainshocks I

Session ID#: 4246

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 10:20 AM-12:20 PM
Salon 7 (Marriott Marquis)
Chairs:  Ross S Stein, Temblor, Inc., Tiburon, United States, Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Sendai, Japan, Warner Marzocchi, University of Naples Federico II, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, Naples, Italy and Volkan Sevilgen, Temblor, Inc., Tiburon, CA, United States
Primary Convener:  Ross S Stein, Temblor, Inc., Tiburon, United States
Co-conveners:  Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Sendai, Japan, Warner Marzocchi, University of Naples Federico II, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, Naples, Italy and Volkan Sevilgen, Temblor, Inc., Tiburon, CA, United States
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • T - Tectonophysics
Index Terms:

4342 Emergency management [NATURAL HAZARDS]
7209 Earthquake dynamics [SEISMOLOGY]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction [SEISMOLOGY]
8163 Rheology and friction of fault zones [TECTONOPHYSICS]
Virtual Option?: Yes

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

S22A-01
Recent Experiences in Aftershock Hazard Modelling in New Zealand (Invited) (3715)
Matt Gerstenberger, David Alan Rhoades, Graeme McVerry, Annemarie Christophersen, Stephen C Bannister, Bill Fry and Sally Potter, GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
S22A-02
Long Aftershock Sequences within Continents and Implications for Earthquake Hazard Assessment (Invited) (8812)
Seth Stein, Northwestern University, Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute for Policy Research, Evanston, IL, United States and Mian Liu, University of Missouri, Geological Sciences, Columbia, United States
S22A-03
Evidence Against the New Madrid Long-Lived Aftershock Hypothesis (Invited) (7580)
Morgan T Page, USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States and Susan Elizabeth Hough, U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, United States
S22A-04
What Controls the Duration of Aftershocks, and Why It Matters for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (7975)
Ross S Stein, Temblor, Inc., Tiburon, United States and Shinji Toda, Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Sendai, Japan
S22A-05
Global Catalog Analysis Shows That Dynamic Triggering Or Shadowing Of Remote M≥5.5 Earthquakes Is Rare (22883)
Christopher W Johnson, Univ California Berkeley, Seismological Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, Roland Burgmann, University of California Berkeley, Earth and Planetary Science, Berkeley, United States and Fred F Pollitz, U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Seattle, United States
S22A-06
A New Hybrid STEP/Coulomb model for Aftershock Forecasting (23759)
Sandy Steacy1, Abigal Jimenez-Loret1 and Matt Gerstenberger2, (1)University of Ulster, Coleraine, United Kingdom, (2)GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
S22A-07
Operational earthquake forecasting in California: A prototype system combining UCERF3 and CyberShake (27278)
Kevin R Milner, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Thomas H Jordan, Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Edward H Field, USGS, Denver, CO, United States and The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities and CyberShake Collaboration
S22A-08
Dynamic Aftershock Triggering Correlated with Cyclic Loading in the Slip Direction (14156)
Jeanne Hardebeck, U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Moffett Field, United States
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