S21D:
Foreshocks and Their Predictive Value: Insights from Recent Observations, Lab Experiments, Numerical Simulations, and Prospective Forecasting Experiments I

Session ID#: 4368

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Salon 7 (Marriott Marquis)
Chairs:  Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom and Jiancang Zhuang, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
Primary Convener:  Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom; University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom
Co-Convener:  Jiancang Zhuang, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
OSPA Liaison:  Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • G - Geodesy
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • T - Tectonophysics
Index Terms:

1242 Seismic cycle related deformations [GEODESY AND GRAVITY]
7215 Earthquake source observations [SEISMOLOGY]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction [SEISMOLOGY]
8118 Dynamics and mechanics of faulting [TECTONOPHYSICS]
Virtual Option?: Yes
Swirl Theme: Characterizing Uncertainty

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

S21D-01
Scientific Facets of the Search for Foreshocks (Invited) (4831)
Warner Marzocchi, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy
S21D-02
Foreshock Activity during Laboratory Friction Tests using Meter-scale Rock Specimens Inferred from two Apparatuses with Different Stiffness (Invited) (5948)
Hironori Kawakata1,2, Nana Yoshimitsu3, Eiichi Fukuyama4, Futoshi Yamashita4, Kazuo Mizoguchi4,5, Tetsuhiro Togo6 and Issei Doi7, (1)Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Japan, (2)Ritsumeikan university, Kusatsu, Japan, (3)University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (4)NIED National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, (5)CRIEPI, Abiko, Japan, (6)Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, (7)Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto, Japan
S21D-03
Numerical Investigation of Earthquake Nucleation on a Laboratory-Scale Heterogeneous Fault with Rate-and-State Friction (26165)
Natalie Higgins, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States and Nadia Lapusta, California Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Pasadena, CA, United States
S21D-04
Foreshocks and Aftershocks of Large-event Clusters in Simulated Catalogs (7573)
Jacquelyn J Gilchrist, James H Dieterich and Keith B Richards-Dinger, UC Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States
S21D-05
Gradual unlocking of a plate boundary controlled the April 2014 M8.1 Iquique, Northern Chile megathrust earthquake (Invited) (2789)
Bernd Schurr1, Sebastian Hainzl2, Jonathan R. Bedford3, Andreas Hoechner3, Rongjiang Wang3, Yong Zhang4, Onno Oncken3, Mauro Palo3, Mitja Bartsch3, Marcos Moreno3, Frederik J Tilmann3, Torsten Dahm3, Pia Victor3, Sergio E Barrientos5 and Jean-Pierre Vilotte6, (1)Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, (2)GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, (3)Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, (4)Beijing University, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Beijing, China, (5)University of Chile, National Seismological Center, Santiago, Chile, (6)Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France
S21D-06
Foreshocks Are Not Predictive of Future Earthquake Size (7583)
Morgan T Page1, Karen R Felzer1 and Andrew Jay Michael2, (1)USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)USGS, Earthquake Science Center, Moffett Field, United States
S21D-07
Comparing Foreshock Characteristics and Foreshock Forecasting in Observed and Simulated Earthquake Catalogs (Invited) (2695)
Yosihiko Ogata, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
S21D-08
Foreshock probabiliites and the Båth law under the ETAS model (19965)
Jiancang Zhuang, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
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