GC41F:
Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate, Earth System, Integrated Assessment, and Impact Models and Observations I Posters

Session ID#: 5195

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 8:00 AM-12:20 PM
Not an Option (Moscone West)
Chairs:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, Maoyi Huang, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States and Edwin P Maurer, Santa Clara University, Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering Department, Santa Clara, United States
Primary Convener:  Maoyi Huang, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD, United States
Co-conveners:  Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University, Climate Center, Lubbock, TX, United States, Linda Mearns, NCAR, RAL, Boulder, CO, United States and Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:
Virtual Option?: No
Swirl Theme: Characterizing Uncertainty

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

 
Shale Gas Boom or Bust? Estimating US and Global Economically Recoverable Resources (6444)
Robert J Brecha1,2, Jérôme Hilaire1 and Nico Bauer1, (1)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (2)University of Dayton, Physics, Dayton, OH, United States
 
Empirical Determination of the Human Influence on Climate Change (9101)
Austin Patrick Hope, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States, Timothy P Canty, University of Maryland, College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, United States, Nora R Mascioli, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States and Ross J Salawitch, University of Maryland College Park, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, College Park, United States
 
Sampling Biases in Datasets of Historical Mean Air Temperature over Land (8412)
Kaicun Wang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
 
Uncertainty Quantification for Characterizing Spatial Tail Dependence under Statistical Framework (18939)
Soyoung Jeon1, Christopher J Paciorek2, Mr. Prabhat1, Suren Byna1, William Drew Collins3 and Michael F Wehner1, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Science, Berkeley, CA, United States
 
Generating future climate time series in semi-arid regions for hydrologic modeling (27492)
Cristian Chadwick, Universidad Adolfo Ibanez, Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias, Santiago, Chile, Sebastian Vicuna, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Santiago, Chile and Jorge A Gironas, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
 
Objective Tuning of Model Parameters in CAM5 Across Different Spatial Resolutions (10547)
Vera Bulaevskaya and Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
 
Complex Empiricism and the Quantification of Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Reconstructions (17760)
Kimberly C Brumble, Indiana University Bloomington, Department of History and Philosophy of Scie nce, Bloomington, IN, United States; University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada
 
Maximum warming occurs about one decade after carbon dioxide emission (13693)
Kate Ricke, Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC, United States and Ken Caldeira, Gates Ventures, Kirkland, United States
 
The Social Network of Tracer Variations and O(100) Uncertain Photochemical Parameters in the Community Atmosphere Model (16856)
Donald D Lucas1, Montiago Labute1, Kenny Chowdhary2, Bert Debusschere3 and Philip J Cameron-Smith4, (1)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (2)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (3)Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA, United States, (4)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States
 
Using Runoff Data to Calibrate the Community Land Model (10905)
Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, Zhangshuan Hou, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Maoyi Huang, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Laura Swiler, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, United States
 
Assessing the Problem Formulation in an Integrated Assessment Model: Implications for Climate Policy Decision-Support (17099)
Gregory George Garner, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, University Park, PA, United States, Patrick M Reed, Cornell University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ithaca, NY, United States and Klaus Keller, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States
 
Exploring regional patterns of uncertainty over precipitation change among CMIP5 models using empirical mode techniques, with a focus on the midlatitude Pacific storm track region (26211)
Baird Langenbrunner1, J David Neelin1, Benjamin R Lintner2 and Bruce T Anderson3, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Rutgers, New Brunswick, United States, (3)Boston University, Earth and Environment, Boston, MA, United States
 
Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios (10724)
Julie A Vano1, John B Kim2, David E Rupp1 and Philip Mote1, (1)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (2)USFS, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR, United States
 
Assessing the impacts of using energy balance models to estimate probabililty distributions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (22421)
Chris E Forest, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States, Ashley Warner, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, Klaus Keller, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States and Andrei P Sokolov, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States
 
Estimates of climate system properties based on recent climate records up to 2012 (23735)
Alex G Libardoni, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology, University Park, PA, United States, Chris E Forest, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States and Andrei P Sokolov, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, Cambridge, United States
 
Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Climate Models (16906)
Cosmin Safta1, Khachik Sargsyan1, Bert Debusschere2, Habib N Najm3, Daniel M Ricciuto4 and Peter E Thornton5, (1)Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, (2)Sandia National Laboratories, Oakland, CA, United States, (3)Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA, United States, (4)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (5)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, United States
 
Projecting global tropical cyclone economic damages with validation of tropical cyclone economic damage model (21829)
Yoshihiko Iseri1, Akito Iwasaki2, Chihiro Miyazaki2 and Shinjiro Kanae1, (1)Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo, Japan, (2)Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
 
Biogeophysical controls on land-atmosphere fluxes in the Community Earth System Model (20203)
Daniel M Ricciuto1, Jiafu Mao1 and Xiaoying Shi2, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
 
Quantifying Uncertainties in Global and North American Regional Climate Change Projections using the Climateprediction.net Multi-Thousand Member Global Climate Model Perturbed Physics Ensemble (20204)
Derek H Rosendahl, South Central Climate Science Center, Norman, OK, United States and David J Karoly, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
 
From Land Use to Land Cover: Restoring the Afforestation Signal in a Coupled Integrated Assessment - Earth System Model and the Implications for CMIP5 RCP Simulations (20832)
Alan V Di Vittorio1, Louise P Chini2, Ben P Bond-Lamberty3, Jiafu Mao4, Xiaoying Shi5, John E. Truesdale6, Anthony Craig7, Katherine V Calvin8, Andrew D Jones1, William Drew Collins9, James Edmonds10, George C Hurtt2, Peter E Thornton11 and Allison M Thomson8, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, MD, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Richland, WA, United States, (4)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (5)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (6)Independent contractor with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (7)Independent contractor, Seattle, United States, (8)Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States, (9)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Science, Berkeley, CA, United States, (10)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, (11)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, United States
 
An Examination of Sensitivities in Uncertainty Quantification for Future Climate Projections over India. (22195)
Ram Singh, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States and Krishna M Achutarao, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India
 
Uncertainty Analysis of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Data for Louisiana, USA (23145)
Selina Jahan Sumi1, Marzia Tamanna1, Bogdan Chivoiu1 and Emad H Habib2, (1)University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, United States, (2)University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Civil Engineering, Lafayette, LA, United States
 
Applicability of surrogate-based MCMC-Bayesian inversion of CLM at flux tower sites with various climate and soil conditions (25325)
Zhangshuan Hou, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, Maoyi Huang, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Laura Swiler, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, United States
 
Uncertainty Analysis of CMIP5 Future Projection in Global Water Cycle (26986)
Satoshi Watanabe, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, Hyungjun Kim, The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Tokyo, Japan, Yukiko Hirabayashi, The Shibaura Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan and Shinjiro Kanae, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo, Japan
 
Assessment of Climate Projections Using Ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs and Developing a Probable Future Scenario for Evaluation of Possible Future Changes (27112)
Ali Ahmadalipour1, Arun Rana1 and Hamid Moradkhani2, (1)Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States, (2)The University of Alabama, Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, Tuscaloosa, United States
 
Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts (10323)
Levi D Brekke1, Martyn P Clark2, Ethan D Gutmann3, Naoki Mizukami3, Pablo A. Mendoza4, Roy Rasmussen5, Kyoko Ikeda6, Tom Pruitt7, Dr. Jeffrey Richard Arnold8 and Balaji Rajagopalan9, (1)U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, United States, (2)University of Calgary, Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, Calgary, AB, Canada, (3)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (4)Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Santiago, Chile, (5)NCAR/RAL, Boulder, United States, (6)NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO, United States, (7)U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, United States, (8)U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, WA, United States, (9)Univ Colorado, Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States
 
Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change (17797)
Peter Carter, Climate Emergency Institute, Washington, DC, United States
 
Uncertainty in stormwater drainage adaptation: what matters and how much is too much? (31637)
Latham J Stack1, Michael H Simpson2, Trisha Moore3, Prof. John S. Stephen Gulliver4, Robert Roseen5, Lois Eberhart6, Joel B Smith7, James Gruber2, Leslie Yetka4, Robert Wood8 and Colin Lawson9, (1)Syntectic International, LLC, Portland, OR, United States, (2)Antioch University New England, Environmental Studies, Keene, NH, United States, (3)Kansas State University, Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Manhattan, United States, (4)University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, United States, (5)Geosyntec Consultants Acton, Acton, MA, United States, (6)City of Minneapolis, Department of Public Works, Minneapolis, MN, United States, (7)Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, CO, United States, (8)Lake Sunapee Protective Association, Sunapee, NH, United States, (9)Trout Unlimited, Portsmouth, NH, United States