Chairs: Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Jennifer E Kay, University of Colorado at Boulder, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), Boulder, United States, Jin Huang, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Benjamin P Kirtman, University of Miami - RSMAS, Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States
Primary Convener: Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Co-conveners: Jennifer E Kay, University of Colorado at Boulder, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), Boulder, United States, Jin Huang, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Benjamin P Kirtman, University of Miami - RSMAS, Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, United States
The Amplification of Australian Heatwave Characteristics in a Large Single-Model Ensemble. (9120)
Sarah Elizabeth Perkins, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, Sophie C Lewis, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, Andrew King, The Univesuty of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, Lisa Alexander, University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia and Erich M Fischer, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Global Weirding? – Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today (20529)
Friederike Elly Luise Otto1, Daniel Mitchell1, Sebastian Sippel2, Mitchell Timothy Black3, Andrea Jennifer Dittus4, Luke James Harrington5 and Nur Hanim Mohd Saleh6, (1)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany, (3)University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, (4)University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia, (5)Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, (6)National University of Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia
Irreducible uncertainty in regional near-term climate projections (21467)
Rowan Sutton1, Ed Hawkins2, Robin S Smith1, David Alan Stainforth3 and Jonathan M Gregory4,5, (1)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (2)University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom, (3)London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom, (4)Met Office Hadley Centre and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (5)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Simulation of Present-Climate Precipitation: Parameter Perturbations and Internal Variability with the GFDL Model (25636)
Laura Zamboni1, J David Neelin2, Robert L Jacob1, Ming Zhao3, Isaac Held4 and Thomas Moore1, (1)Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, United States, (2)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, (4)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Trends In Secular Mean State And Variance Changes In Ocean Carbon Uptake In RCP8.5 Large Ensemble Experiments With Two Earth System Models (26245)
Sarah Schlunegger, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, Keith B Rodgers, IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea, Jorge L Sarmiento, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States and Thomas L Froelicher, Universtity of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, Switzerland
Estimating the anthropogenic sea surface temperature response using pattern scaling (27373)
Adeline Bichet1, Paul J Kushner1, Lawrence Mudryk2, Laurent Terray3 and John C Fyfe4, (1)University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada, (2)University of Toronto, Department of Physics, Toronto, ON, Canada, (3)CERFACS, Toulouse, France, (4)Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada
Timescales and Magnitude of Internal Variability in Surface Ocean pCO2: 1975-2036 (30736)
Darren Pilcher, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, United States, Galen A McKinley, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, United States, Keith T Lindsay, NCAR, CGD, Boulder, United States, Matthew C Long, NCAR, Boulder, United States and Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States