How Much Can the Total Aleatory Variability of Empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations Be Reduced Using Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations?

Thomas H Jordan1, Feng Wang2, Robert W Graves3, Scott Callaghan4, Kim Bak Olsen5, Yifeng Cui6, Kevin R Milner4, Gideon Juve7, Karan Vahi7, John Yu4, Ewa Deelman7, David Gill4 and Philip J Maechling1, (1)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)AIR-Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA, United States, (3)USGS California Water Science Center Menlo Park, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (4)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (5)San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States, (6)San Diego Supercomputer Center, La Jolla, CA, United States, (7)USC Information Sciences Inst., Marina Del Rey, CA, United States