GC52D:
Toward Better Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Variability: From Ecosystem Processes to Agricultural Adaptation and Decision Making II


Session ID#: 10290

Session Description:
Climate variability challenges agricultural production, particularly in developing countries. Agricultural resilience requires understanding the impacts of climate variability AND the dynamics of farmer adaptation.  Seasonal climate forecasting allows models to predict yields and to explore adaptation strategies, but the challenge lies in translating low-to-moderate skill climate information into useful information for farmers. How will farmers use that information, and how will agro-ecological and socio-economic contexts affect decisions under climate variability?  Can in-situ data and remote sensing (UAV, satellite), improve the quality of information on agro-ecological impacts? How do agent-based models and other tools combine with these bio-physical tools to understand the dynamics of farmer adaptation? We seek conceptual, evidence-based research, and case studies on: 1) linking multi-scale climate and RS/environmental information to improve decision support in agriculture; 2) characterizing climate variability and its agro-ecological impacts, 3) how farmer adaptation varies across systems; and 4) attributing farmer decisions to climate variability.
Primary Convener:  Lyndon D Estes, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Conveners:  Amor V M Ines1, Jeff Atkins2 and Erin Swails2, (1)Michigan State University, Departments of Plant, Soil and Micriobial Sciences, and Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, East Lansing, MI, United States(2)University of Virginia Main Campus, Charlottesville, VA, United States
Chairs:  Jeff Atkins, University of Virginia Main Campus, Charlottesville, VA, United States and Erin Swails, University of Virginia Main Campus, Charlottesville, VA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Jeff Atkins, University of Virginia Main Campus, Charlottesville, VA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1910 Data assimilation, integration and fusion [INFORMATICS]
1918 Decision analysis [INFORMATICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders (63360)
Marcela Rojas1, Julien Jean Malard1, Jan F Adamowski2, Juventino Gálvez3, Héctor Tuy4 and Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez1, (1)McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada, (2)McGill University, Bioresource Engineering, Montreal, QC, Canada, (3)Universidad Rafael Landívar, Institute of Agriculture, Nat. Resources and the Environment, Guatemala City, Guatemala, (4)Universidad Rafael Landívar, Instituto de Investigación y Proyección sobre Ambiente Natural y Sociedad (IARNA), Guatemala City, Guatemala
Sources of Uncertainty in Modeling Ecosystem Responses to Environmental Change (Invited) (68503)
Sandy P Harrison, University of Reading, School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Sciences (SAGES), Reading, RG6, United Kingdom
Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State (Invited) (74147)
Park Williams, University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Geography, Los Angeles, United States
Variability in reef connectivity in the Coral Triangle (80534)
Diane M Thompson, Boston University, Earth & Environment, Boston, MA, United States, J A Kleypas, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, CO, United States, Frederic S Castruccio, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, James R. Watson, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States and Enrique N Curchitser, Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Assessing the Risk of Ecosystem Disruption in Europe using a Dynamic Vegetation Model driven by CMIP5 Regional Climatic Projections from EURO-CORDEX (81653)
Marie Dury1,2, Alain Hambuckers3, Alexandra Henrot1, Ingrid Jacquemin1, Guy Munhoven1 and Louis M Francois1, (1)University of Liège, Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography, Liège, Belgium, (2)Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States, (3)University of Liège, Biologie du comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale, Liège, Belgium
Harnessing Historical Climate Variability to Assess Multivariate Climate Changes (74601)
Colin R. Mahony1, Alex J. Cannon2 and Sally N. Aitken1, (1)University of British Columbia, Forest and Conservation Sciences, Vancouver, BC, Canada, (2)Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division, Victoria, BC, Canada
Assessing the Dynamic Effects of Climate on Individual Tree Growth Across Time and Space (73459)
Malcolm Itter, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, UNITED STATES, Andrew O Finley, Michigan State University, Department of Forestry and Geography, East Lansing, MI, United States, Anthony W D'Amato, US Forest Service Davis, Davis, CA, United States, Jane R Foster, University of Vermont, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, Burlington, United States and John B Bradford, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States

See more of: Global Environmental Change