GC41G:
Characterizing and Interpreting Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes I


Session ID#: 10360

Session Description:
Extreme weather events are, by definition, rare, but can have an outsized impact on human society. In this session, we aim to address two related questions with regard to extreme temperature and precipitation events, including drought. First, to what extent have extreme events changed in frequency and/or intensity, relative to changes in the mean? Second, what climatic influences and physical mechanisms underlie variability and changes in extreme events, and how are extremes in temperature and precipitation related? We encourage contributions that utilize new data sources, present novel methods for assessing changes in extremes given limited data, and incorporate observations with physical models.
Primary Convener:  Karen A McKinnon, University of California Los Angeles, Departments of Statistics and Atmospheric & Oceanic Science and Institute of Environment and Sustainability, Los Angeles, United States
Conveners:  Andrew N Rhines, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States, Peter J Huybers, Harvard University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States and Paul C Loikith, Portland State University, Geography, Portland, OR, United States
Chairs:  Karen A McKinnon, University of California Los Angeles, Departments of Statistics and Atmospheric & Oceanic Science and Institute of Environment and Sustainability, Los Angeles, United States, Andrew N Rhines, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States and Paul C Loikith, Portland State University, Geography, Portland, OR, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Karen A McKinnon, University of California Los Angeles, Departments of Statistics and Atmospheric & Oceanic Science and Institute of Environment and Sustainability, Los Angeles, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • NG - Nonlinear Geophysics
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1631 Land/atmosphere interactions [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1812 Drought [HYDROLOGY]
3354 Precipitation [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Implications of dynamics underlying temperature and precipitation distributions for changes in extremes (Invited) (58567)
J David Neelin1, Paul C Loikith2, Samuel N Stechmann3, Sandeep Sahany4, Diana N Bernstein1, Kevin Martin Quinn5, Joyce Meyerson6, Katrina Hales1 and Baird Langenbrunner1, (1)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)Portland State University, Geography, Portland, OR, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States, (4)National Environment Agency Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, (5)University of California, Beverly Hills, CA, United States, (6)UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Changes in U.S. Temperature Extremes under Increased CO2 in Millennial-scale Climate Simulations (64978)
Whitney K Huang1, Michael Stein2, Elisabeth J Moyer3, Shanshan Sun3 and David McInerney4, (1)Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States, (2)University of Chicago, Department of Statistics, Chicago, IL, United States, (3)University of Chicago, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Changes in Extreme Warm and Cold Temperatures Associated with 20th Century Global Warming (81614)
Prashant D Sardeshmukh, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Gilbert P Compo, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; CIRES and Physical Sciences Laboratory/NOAA, Boulder, United States, Chesley McColl, CIRES/University of Colorado and Physical Sciences Laboratory/NOAA, Boulder, United States; University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States and Cecile Penland, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States
Implications of North Atlantic Sea Surface Salinity for Summer Precipitation over the US Midwest: Mechanisms and Predictive Value (Invited) (78258)
Laifang Li1, Raymond W Schmitt2, Caroline Ummenhofer3 and Kristopher B Karnauskas1, (1)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (2)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (3)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States
Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Colorado Floods in September 2013. (82350)
Pardeep Pall1, Christina M Patricola2, Michael F Wehner3 and Dáithí A Stone3, (1)San José State University, San José, CA, United States, (2)Texas A & M University College Station, College Station, TX, United States, (3)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States
Understanding future changes in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional wind and regional hydroclimate (Invited) (66170)
Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, United States, Mingfang Ting, Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, United States and Tiffany Shaw, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States
Trends in persistent seasonal-scale atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for precipitation and temperature extremes in California (Invited) (59187)
Daniel L Swain1, Daniel E Horton1,2, Deepti Singh1,3 and Noah S Diffenbaugh4, (1)Stanford University, Earth System Science, Stanford, CA, United States, (2)Northwestern University, Earth & Planetary Science, Evanston, IL, United States, (3)Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)Stanford University, Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, United States
Factors Contributing to Regional and Seasonal Trends in Temperature Extremes (75707)
Randall M Dole, NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States

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