GC21D:
Detecting and Attributing Impacts of Climate Change I


Session ID#: 10361

Session Description:
As evidenced in the 2014 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there is now a large variety of studies documenting detected impacts of observed climate trends, spanning physical, biological, human, and managed systems.  Nevertheless, detection and attribution of changes in these systems caused specifically by anthropogenic climate change remains difficult, with only a small number of studies demonstrating the end-to-end connection. This session aims to bring together work on detection and attribution in the many different systems affected by climate change in order to reveal common methods and challenges within this emerging field. We welcome submissions that trace the causal effect of observed climate trends and/or anthropogenic climate change on outcomes of concern, as well as the development of methods for making that connection including process-tracing, fingerprint methods, or extreme-event analysis.
Primary Convener:  Frances Claire Moore, Stanford Earth Sciences, Stanford, United States
Conveners:  Dáithí A Stone, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States and Frances Claire Moore, Stanford Earth Sciences, Stanford, United States
Chairs:  Dáithí A Stone, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, Frances Claire Moore, Stanford Earth Sciences, Stanford, United States and Maximilian Auffhammer, University of California Berkeley, Agriculture and Resource Economics, Berkeley, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Frances Claire Moore, Stanford Earth Sciences, Stanford, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
3305 Climate change and variability [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

A Reassessment of 20th Century Global Sea-Level Change (Invited) (60414)
Carling Hay1,2, Eric Morrow1, Robert E Kopp3 and Jerry X Mitrovica4, (1)Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States, (2)Harvard University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States, (3)Rutgers University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, New Brunswick, United States, (4)Harvard University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, United States
Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world (78838)
Julien Cattiaux, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01, France and Christophe Cassou, CERFACS European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, Toulouse Cedex 01, France
Changes of climate regimes during the last millennium and the twenty first century as simulated by the Community Earth System Model (76935)
Wei Huang, Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou, China and Song Feng, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States
Detecting and Quantifying the Anthropogenic Influence on Extremes (Invited) (61504)
Francis W Zwiers, University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada
Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change (67194)
Dann Mitchell1, Clare Heaviside2, Sotiris Vardoulakis2, Chris Huntingford3, Giacomo Masato4, Benoit P Guillod5, Peter C Frumhoff6, Andy Bowery7 and Myles Robert Allen8, (1)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (2)Public Health England, London, United Kingdom, (3)Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom, (4)University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, (5)University of Oxford, ECI/School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom, (6)Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, United States, (7)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (8)University of Oxford, Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom
Advances and challenges in the attribution of climate impacts using statistical inference (Invited) (73681)
Solomon M Hsiang, University of California, Berkeley, Goldman School of Public Policy, Berkeley, United States
Quantifying loss and damage from anthropogenic climate change - Bridging the gap between two research communities (69118)
Friederike Elly Luise Otto, University of Oxford, ECI/School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom

See more of: Global Environmental Change