H12F:
Hydroclimatic Extremes: Drought II


Session ID#: 10513

Session Description:
Drought is among the costliest natural hazards in the U.S. and around the world. Understanding drought’s hydroclimatic causes, frequency and severity, and producing reliable predictions are of critical importance for impact assessments, disaster mitigation, and future projection. This session invites contributions from all aspects of drought monitoring, diagnostics, prediction, and projection, including (1) understanding the physical mechanism and manifestation of drought events, (2) estimation of drought frequency, spatial patterns, and intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability, (3) probabilistic and deterministic modeling and forecasting, (4) predictability of dynamic models and statistical methods in drought detection, (5) impacts of climate, landscape, and demand projections on the severity and frequency of future droughts, (6) drought indicators and assessment frameworks, and (7) diagnosis and attribution of drought events.
Primary Convener:  Shahrbanou Madadgar, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
Conveners:  L. Gwen Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States, Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, United States and Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States
Chairs:  Shahrbanou Madadgar, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States, Lifeng Luo, Michigan State University, Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, East Lansing, United States, L. Gwen Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, United States and Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Shahrbanou Madadgar, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • EP - Earth and Planetary Surface Processes
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1812 Drought [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1833 Hydroclimatology [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The Physics of Great Plains Drought, Its Predictability, and Its Changed Risk in a Warming World (Invited) (59460)
Martin P Hoerling, NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States and Ben Livneh, University of Colorado Boulder, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States
Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains? (66207)
Michael J Hayes, University of Nebraska Lincoln, School of Natural Resources, Lincoln, NE, United States, Song Feng, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States and Miroslav Trnka, Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
Warm Season Drought Development over North America and Northern Eurasia: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves (Invited) (58582)
Hailan Wang, SSAI, Hampton, VA, United States, Siegfried D Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States
Evaluating the Potential Use of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Data for Agricultural Drought Risk Monitoring (60443)
Hongxiang Yan, Portland State University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland, OR, United States and Hamid Moradkhani, The University of Alabama, Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Tuscaloosa, United States
Propagation of model and forcing uncertainty into hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in continental river basins (59428)
Luis Samaniego1, Rohini Kumar2, David Schaefer3, Shaochun Huang4, Tao Yang5, Vimal Mishra6, Stephanie Eisner7, Tobias Vetter4, Ilias Pechlivanidis8, Stefan Liersch4, Martina Flörke9 and Valentina Krysanova4, (1)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Computation Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany, (2)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, Computational Hydrosystems, Leipzig, Germany, (3)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, (4)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (5)Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, (6)Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Department of Civil Engineering, Gandhinagar, India, (7)University of Kassel, Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), Kassel, Germany, (8)Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden, (9)Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Germany
Probabilistic Assessment of Meteorological Drought Risk over the Canadian Prairie Provinces Based on the NARCCAP multi-RCM Ensemble (70650)
Mohammad Badrul Masud1, Naveed Khaliq1,2, Howard S. Wheater3 and Elvis Zilefac4, (1)University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (2)National Research Council, Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering, Ottawa, ON, Canada, (3)Centre for Hydrology and Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (4)University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Comparison of Bootstrapping and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Copula Analysis of Hydrological Droughts (67225)
Pan Yang1, Tze Ling Ng1 and Wei Yang2, (1)Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (2)Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Using Search Algorithms and Probabilistic Graphical Models to Understand the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on Western US Drought  (76153)
Steven B Malevich, Rhodium Group, New York, United States and Connie A Woodhouse, University of Arizona, School of Geography, Development, and Environment, Tucson, AZ, United States

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