SM13F:
Fifty Years of Space Weather Forecasting: Highlighting the Science, Behind the Societal Relevance I


Session ID#: 11065

Session Description:
The year 2015 marks 50 years of routine space weather forecasting in the US space weather community. This session invites papers that report on the system science, observations, models and challenges related to forecasting space weather. For this session “space weather” includes the science behind impacts on human and technological systems at Earth that result from solar disturbances, galactic cosmic rays, and from the influence of the atmosphere below. Interest also extends to space weather effects elsewhere in the solar system. Presentations should focus on advances that have moved, or are moving, observations and science to the point of predictability.  The conveners encourage national and international perspectives on observations, modeling and forecasting.
Primary Convener:  Delores Knipp, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Howard J Singer, NOAA-Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, Michael A Hapgood, Science and Technology Facilities Council, Didcot, OX11, United Kingdom and Scott William McIntosh, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States
Chairs:  Howard J Singer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States and Delores Knipp, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Scott William McIntosh, High Altitude Observatory, Boulder, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SA - SPA-Aeronomy
  • SH - SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

7924 Forecasting [SPACE WEATHER]
7944 Ionospheric effects on radio waves [SPACE WEATHER]
7954 Magnetic storms [SPACE WEATHER]
7974 Solar effects [SPACE WEATHER]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Fifty Years of Space Weather Forecasting from Boulder (Invited) (58763)
Thomas E Berger, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States
Simplified solutions to predicting the magnetic vectors within CMEs. (Invited) (59148)
Neel Savani, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Forecasting the Radiation Belts for Satellites Undergoing Electric-Orbit Raising (Invited) (69575)
Richard Bertram Horne1, Sarah A Glauert1, Nigel Peter Meredith2, Tobias Kersten2, Daniel Heynderickx3, Vincent Fabien Maget4, Wen Li5, David A Pitchford6 and David Christopher Wade7, (1)British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (2)NERC British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (3)DH Consultancy, Leuven, Belgium, (4)ONERA Toulouse, Toulouse Cedex 04, France, (5)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (6)Power/Thermal Subsystems & Spacecraft Survivability, SES, Chateau de Betzdorf, Luxembourg, (7)Atrium Space Insurance Consortium, London, United Kingdom
Forecasting Thermosphere Density: an Overview (Invited) (59401)
Sean Bruinsma, CNES, Toulouse, France
Forecasting keV-electrons in the inner Earth's magnetosphere responsible for surface charging (75150)
Natalia Y Ganushkina1,2, Stepan Dubyagin2, Ilkka Sillanpaa2 and David A Pitchford3, (1)University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, (2)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, (3)Power/Thermal Subsystems & Spacecraft Survivability, SES, Chateau de Betzdorf, Luxembourg
An Ensemble Approach to Extreme Space Weather Event Probability -- A First Look (84539)
Seth Jonas1, Kassandra Fronczyk2, Eoin McCarron1 and Lucas M Pratt1, (1)Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC, United States, (2)Institute for Defense Analyses, OED, Alexandria, VA, United States
Nowcasting Ground Magnetic Perturbations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (81919)
Daniel T Welling, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States, Gabor Toth, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Howard J Singer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, United States, George H Millward, CU/CIRES NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, United States and Tamas I Gombosi, University of Michigan, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, Ann Arbor, United States
Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics System for Space Weather Specifications, Forecasts and Applications (59635)
Robert Walter Schunk1, Ludger Scherliess1, Vince Eccles1, Larry C Gardner1, Jan Josef Sojka2, Lie Zhu1, Xiaoqing Pi3, Anthony J Mannucci4, Mark Butala5, Brian D Wilson6, Attila Komjathy3, Chunming Wang7 and Gary Rosen7, (1)Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States, (2)Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Utah State University, Physics, Logan, UT, United States, (3)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (4)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States, (5)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (6)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (7)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States

See more of: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics