H53A:
Advances in Hydrometeorological Extremes Forecasting: Estimation, Integrated Risk Analysis, and Applications III Posters


Session ID#: 11162

Session Description:
Floods and droughts affect millions of people each year and their impact is expected to grow in the coming decades. This session focuses on hydro-meteorological forecasting to support decision-making in flood and drought mitigation and sub-seasonal to seasonal management of water, environmental and energy resources. Progress may come in the form of enhanced understanding of flood/drought vulnerability, improved modeling, supporting datasets, ensemble techniques, and user communication. Research topics of interest include (1) estimation of flood and drought regimes, (2) downscaling and calibration of meteorological forecasts, (3) hydrologic modeling, including parameter estimation, (4) In situ and remotely sensed data assimilation, particularly of snow and streamflow, (5) Uncertainty quantification and forecast verification, (6) Post-processing of streamflow forecasts, (7) Risk analysis of socio-economic and environmental impacts  and decision support systems, (8) forecast communication.  Sponsoring initiatives include HEPEX (http://www.hepex.org) and FloodNet (http://www.nsercfloodnet.ca).
Primary Convener:  Nathalie Voisin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Conveners:  Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Paulin DL Coulibaly, Professor, M. ASCE, Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada and Chandra S Pathak, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrology, Hydraulics and Coastal Community of Practice, Washington DC, DC, United States
Chairs:  Nathalie Voisin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States, Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Paulin DL Coulibaly, Professor, M. ASCE, Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada and Chandra S Pathak, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrology, Hydraulics and Coastal Community of Practice, Washington DC, DC, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1840 Hydrometeorology [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin (63649)
Ali Ahmadalipour, Benjamin Beal and Hamid Moradkhani, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States
An Analysis of Historic and Projected Climate Scenarios in the Western United States Using Hydrologic Landscape Classification (73934)
Chas Jones Jr, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Scott G Leibowitz, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (retired), Corvallis, OR, United States, Randy L Comeleo, US EPA, Pacific Ecological Systems Division, Corvallis, United States, Laurel E Stratton, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States, Keith A Sawicz, Environmental Protection Agency Corvallis, Corvallis, OR, United States and Parker J Wigington Jr, Environmental Protection Agency San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
Understanding Hydroclimatic Extremes in Changing Monsoon Climates with Daily Bias Correction of CMIP5 Regional Climate Models over South Asia (82569)
M. Alfi Hasan, University of Rhode Island, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kingston, RI, United States, Akm Saiful Islam, Bangladesh Institute of Water and Flood Management, Dhaka, Bangladesh and Ali S Akanda, University of Rhode Island, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kingston, United States
Future PMP Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios and its Changes Cause Analysis (61698)
Sangdan Kim1, Jeonghoon Lee1, Okjeong Lee2, Choe Bogyeong2 and Myung woo Park2, (1)Pukyong National University, Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Environmental Engineering), Busan, South Korea, (2)Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)
Hierarchical Spatial Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Urban Areas (61379)
Chandra Rupa Rajulapati, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India and Pradeep Mujumdar, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Department of Civil Engineering, Interdisciplinary Center for Water Research, Bangalore, India
Investigation of Atmospheric Modelling Framework for Better Reconstruction on Historical Extreme Precipitation Event in PMP Estimation (61502)
Xiaodong Chen, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, United States, Faisal Hossain, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seattle, United States and L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
An Integrated Modeling Framework for Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood (72683)
Sudershan Gangrade1, Deeksha Rastogi2, Shih-Chieh Kao1, Moetasim Ashfaq3, Bibi S Naz4, Erik Kabela2, Valentine G Anantharaj4, Nagendra Singh5, Benjamin L Preston4 and Rui Mei4, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (4)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (5)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Geospatial Science and Human Security, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Assessment of the Suitability of a Global Hydrodynamic Model in Simulating a Regional-scale Extreme Flood at Finer Spatial Resolutions (78050)
Cherry May Rosete Mateo1, Dai Yamazaki2, Hyungjun Kim3, Adisorn Champathong4 and Taikan Oki1, (1)University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (2)The University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Tokyo, Japan, (3)The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, (4)Royal Irrigation Department, Bangkok, Thailand
Impact of Spatial Resolution and Forcing on the Simulation of Drought and Floods (66022)
Paul JJF Torfs1, Lieke Anna Melsen2, Ryan Teuling3, Massimiliano Zappa4, Naoki Mizukami5, Martyn P Clark5 and Remko Uijlenhoet6, (1)Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands, (2)Wageningen University and Research Center, Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management, Wageningen, Netherlands, (3)Wageningen University, Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management, Wageningen, Netherlands, (4)WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (6)Wageningen University and Research, Environmental Sciences, Wageningen, Netherlands
The Impact of Rainfall Uncertainty on Flood Simulations (68386)
Niall Quinn1, Jim E Freer2, Gemma Coxon3, Ross A Woods4, Paul D Bates5, Elizabeth Lewis6, Stephen Blenkinsop7, Hayley J Fowler7 and Fiachra O'Loughlin8, (1)Fathom, Bristol, United Kingdom, (2)University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Laboratory, Canmore, AB, Canada, (3)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (4)University of Bristol, Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom, (5)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, (6)Newcastle University, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom, (7)Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Newcastle, United Kingdom, (8)University College Dublin, School of Civil Engineering, Dublin, Ireland
Sub-Daily Runoff Simulations with Parameters Inferred at the Daily Time Scale (58336)
José Eduardo Reynolds1,2, Chong-Yu Xu1,3, Jan Seibert4,5 and Sven Halldin1,2, (1)Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden, (2)Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden, (3)University of Oslo, Department of Geosciences and Hydrology, Oslo, Norway, (4)University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich, Switzerland, (5)Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Uppsala, Sweden
Non-Stationary Hydrologic Frequency Analysis using B-Splines Quantile Regression (67131)
Bouchra Nasri1, André St-Hilaire1, Taoufik Bouezmarni2 and Taha Ouarda3, (1)Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique-Eau Terre Environnement INRS-ETE, Quebec City, QC, Canada, (2)Université de Sherbrooke, department of statistics, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada, (3)Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Non-stationary and Trend Assessment of Flash Flood in the Carolinas (69844)
Vidya Samadi1, Thomas Martin2 and Michael Meadows1, (1)University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States, (2)GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
A Coupled Approach with Stochastic Rainfall-Runoff Simulation and Hydraulic Modeling for Extreme Flood Estimation on Large Watersheds (62383)
Emmanuel Paquet, EDF-DTG, Grenoble, France
Appraisal of Weather Research and Forecasting Model Downscaling of Hydro-meteorological Variables and their Applicability for Discharge Prediction: Prognostic Approach for Ungauged Basin (80340)
Prashant K Srivastava1, D Han2, Miguel A Rico-Ramirez2, Michaela Bray3, Tanvir Islam4, George Petropoulos5, Manika Gupta6 and Mesoscale and Hydrological Modelling Group (MHMG), (1)Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India, (2)University of Bristol, Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom, (4)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (5)Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom, (6)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Hydrologic Modeling at the National Water Center: Operational Implementation of the WRF-Hydro Model to support National Weather Service Hydrology (66151)
Brian A. Cosgrove1, David Gochis2, Edward P Clark3, Zhengtao Cui4, Aubrey L Dugger2, Greg M Fall5, Xia Feng6, Mark A Fresch7, Jonathan J Gourley8, Sadiq Khan9, David Kitzmiller4, Hak Su Lee1, Yuqiong Liu10, James L McCreight2, Andrew James Newman11, Abdoul Oubeidillah6, Linlin Pan12, Cham Pham1, Fernando Renzo Salas13, Kevin Michael Sampson2, Michael B Smith14, Gautam Sood15, Andrew W Wood2, David N Yates16, Wei Yu17 and Yongxin Zhang18, (1)NOAA/NWS/NWC, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, Tuscaloosa, United States, (4)NOAA/NWS/OWP, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (5)NOAA/NWS/OWP, Chanhassen, MN, United States, (6)NOAA/NWS/NWC, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, (7)NOAA, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (8)National Severe Storms Lab, Oklahoma City, United States, (9)NOAA/NWS National Water Center, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States, (10)NWS/OWP and LEN Technologies, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (11)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (12)National Ctr Atmospheric Res, Boulder, CO, United States, (13)NOAA, Geospatial Intelligence Division, Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, Tuscaloosa, United States, (14)NOAA/NWS Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, Silver Spring, United States, (15)NOAA/NWS/NWC, Silver Spring, United States, (16)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (17)Weather Tech Services, LLC, Boulder, CO, United States, (18)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Optimization of precipitation and streamflow forecasts in the southwest Contiguous US for warm season convection (65126)
Timothy M Lahmers, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States, Christopher L Castro, University of Arizona, Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, AZ, United States, Hoshin Vijai Gupta, University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, United States, David J Gochis, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Mohamed ElSaadani, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States
Long-Term Drought Forecasting based on Climate Signals using Multi-Channel (65639)
Huijuan Cui1, Vijay P Singh2, Qiuhong Tang1 and Quansheng Ge1, (1)IGSNRR Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China, (2)Texas A & M University, Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, College Station, TX, United States
Diagnosis of North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) skill for predicting floods and droughts over the continental USA (60865)
Louise J. Slater1, Gabriele Villarini2 and Allen Bradley2, (1)University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)IIHR—Hydroscience and Engineering, Iowa City, IA, United States
Seasonal Hydrometeorological Ensemble Prediction System; Forecast of Irrigation Potentials in Denmark (78888)
Diana Lucatero1, Karsten H. Jensen1, Henrik Madsen2, Jens Christian Refsgaard3 and Jacob Kidmose4, (1)University of Copenhagen, København K, Denmark, (2)DHI, Horsholm, Denmark, (3)Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Department of Hydrology, Copenhagen, Denmark, (4)Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, København K, Denmark
Real-time demonstration and evaluation of over-the-loop short to medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasting (86474)
Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Elizabeth Clark, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Andrew James Newman, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Bart Nijssen, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Martyn P Clark, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Bureau of Reclamation Denver, Denver, CO, United States and Jeffrey Richard Arnold, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States
Exploring the Potential of Snow Data Assimilation to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Across the Western United States (70922)
Andrew James Newman, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Chengcheng Huang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, Martyn P Clark, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Levi D Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation, Research and Development, Denver, United States and Jeffrey Richard Arnold, US Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville, FL, United States
Improving streamflow simulations in the Western United States via ensemble snow data assimilation (82693)
Chengcheng Huang1, Andrew James Newman2, Martyn P Clark3, Andrew W Wood4 and Xiaogu Zheng1, (1)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, (2)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States

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