GC21E:
Global Change Scenarios for the United States: Current Activities and Future Directions in Content and Methods For Research, Assessment, and Decision Support I


Session ID#: 11185

Session Description:
Scenarios that describe future climate, sea level, land use and cover, and population are needed for both projections and assessments of the impacts of global change. In the United States, scenarios are regularly used for assessment purposes, as well as for impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies, and increasingly in planning and decision support. Expanded global change scenarios that consider interlinkages across physical, ecological, and socioeconomic dimensions, as well as spatial and temporal scales, are needed to better support these activities. In this symposium, we seek to bring together researchers and users who are advancing scenario methodologies and improving delivery mechanisms and applications to decision-making to consider: 1) the ways in which scenarios bridge from global processes to regional and local conditions, 2) how they tie to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used by the IPCC, and 3) how they might inform upcoming assessments such as the Fourth National Climate Assessment.
Primary Convener:  Christopher P Weaver, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, United States
Conveners:  Richard H Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, Bernice Reya Rosenzweig, Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center, CUNY, Environmental Sciences Initiative, New York, NY, United States and Donald J Wuebbles, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, United States
Chairs:  Christopher P Weaver, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, United States and Bernice Reya Rosenzweig, Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center, CUNY, Environmental Sciences Initiative, New York, NY, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Christopher P Weaver, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • B - Biogeosciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1632 Land cover change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1637 Regional climate change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1641 Sea level change [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Scenarios and US National Climate Assessments: Where have they been and where could they go? (Invited) (64687)
Allison K Leidner, Universities Space Research Association Greenbelt, Greenbelt, MD, United States; NASA Headquarters, Earth Science Division, Washington, DC, United States
The Development of Climate Scenarios for the National Climate Assessment (Invited) (66096)
David R Easterling, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, United States and Kenneth Kunkel, CICS-NC/NCDC, Asheville, NC, United States
New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios (76019)
Robert J Lempert, RAND Corporation Santa Monica, Santa Monica, CA, United States
NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments (80537)
Ramakrishna R Nemani1, Bridget L Thrasher2, Weile Wang3, Tsengdar J Lee4, Forrest S Melton1, Jennifer L Dungan5 and Andrew Michaelis6, (1)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (2)Argos Analytics, Washington, DC, United States, (3)CSUMB & NASA/AMES, Seaside, CA, United States, (4)NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, United States, (5)NASA Ames Research Center (retired), Moffett Field, United States, (6)California State University Monterey Bay, Seaside, CA, United States
Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops (83670)
Andrea J Ray, NOAA/Earth System Research Lab/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
States at Risk: America’s Preparedness Report Card (73087)
Rita M.S. Yu1,2, Ben Strauss1, Scott Andrew Kulp1, James Bronzan1, Beth Rodehorst3, Cassandra Bhat3, Brenda Dix3, Michael Savonis3 and Richard Wiles1, (1)Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)University of Washington Seattle Campus, JISAO, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)ICF International, Washington DC, United States
The creation of reasonable projections toward sustainable development considering the climate and socioeconomic changes in the Pacific Islands (76893)
Satoshi Watanabe1, Akiko Iida2, Jun Nakatani2, Keigo Noda2, Masanori Take3 and Shinichiro Nakamura4, (1)University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (2)University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (3)University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)Nagoya University, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya, Japan
Modeling Urban Energy Savings Scenarios using Earth System Microclimate and Urban Morphology (70749)
Melissa R Allen1, Amy Rose2, Marcia L Branstetter2, Jiangye Yuan2, Dr. Joshua R New2, Olufemi Omitaomu3 and Thomas J Wilbanks4, (1)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Computational Urban Sciences, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (4)Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN, United States

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