C21C:
Where, When, and Why Will Arctic Landscapes Get Wetter or Drier? Posters


Session ID#: 8782

Session Description:
Arctic landscapes are characterized by large expanses of saturated soils, wetlands, ice wedge polygon ponds and thermokarst ponds and lakes. The spatial and temporal dynamics of soil saturation and inundation drive ecosystem responses, carbon and water cycles and the energy balance. Earth System Models predict an overall drying of Arctic soils by the end of the 21st century, but are not yet able to represent the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in increasing and decreasing lake, pond and wetland area observed over recent decades. We invite abstracts that explore observations and models to quantify and predict: 1) the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in soil moisture and inundation, and 2) the underlying controls (climate, landscape structure, permafrost properties, ecosystem interactions, etc.) on shifts in landscape wetness. This session aims to highlight a framework for improving our ability to predict where, when and why Arctic landscapes will become wetter or drier.
Primary Convener:  Cathy Jean Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos, NM, United States
Conveners:  David M Lawrence, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States and Stan D Wullschleger, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Chairs:  Cathy Jean Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States and David M Lawrence, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Cathy Jean Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • H - Hydrology
Index Terms:

0702 Permafrost [CRYOSPHERE]
0758 Remote sensing [CRYOSPHERE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1655 Water cycles [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Will the Arctic Land Surface become Wetter or Drier in Response to a Warming Climate (Invited) (64238)
Larry D Hinzman, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Micheal Rawlins Dr, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States, Serreze Mark, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Charles J Vorosmarty, Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center, CUNY, Environmental Sciences Initiative, New York, United States and John E Walsh, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
What an Arctic terrestrial MIP tells about changes and differences in Arctic subsurface hydrology (Invited) (61201)
Kazuyuki Saito, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan and The GRENE-TEA Model Intercomparison Project (GTMIP) team
Modeling present hydrological conditions as a key to predict the future - results from a case study of a periglacial catchment in Greenland (Invited) (60427)
Emma Johansson1, Tobias Lindborg1 and Sten Berglund2, (1)SKB Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management, Stockholm, Sweden, (2)HydroResearch, Täby, Sweden
Ice wedge degradation: Why Arctic lowlands are becoming wetter and drier (Invited) (64961)
Anna K Liljedahl, Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States, Julia Boike, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, Ronald P Daanen, DGGS, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Aleksandr N Fedorov, Melnikov Permafrost Institute SB RAS, Yakutsk, Russia, Gerald V Frost Jr, University of Virginia Main Campus, Environmental Sciences, Charlottesville, VA, United States, Guido Grosse, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Permafrost Research Section, Potsdam, Germany, Larry D Hinzman, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Yoshihiro Iijima, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka-city, Japan, Janet C Jorgenson, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Nadya Matveyeva, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia, Marius Necsoiu, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX, United States, Martha K Raynolds, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Vladimir E Romanovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, United States, Jörg Schulla, Self Employed, Zurich, Switzerland, Ken D Tape, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Donald A Walker, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Geobotany Center, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Cathy Jean Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States and Hironori Yabuki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama-city, Japan
Regional Patterns of Ice-Wedge Degradation Across Northern Alaska: What Does Asynchronous Timing of Onset Tell Us Regarding Triggering Mechanisms, Thresholds, and Impacts? (61659)
Gerald V Frost Jr1, Matthew J Macander1, Anna K Liljedahl2 and Donald A Walker3, (1)Alaska Biological Research, Inc., Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States, (3)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Geobotany Center, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Indicators of changing landscape wetness in the western Canadian Arctic (74570)
Philip Marsh1, Tyler de Jong2 and Branden Walker1, (1)Wilfrid Laurier University, Cold Regions Research Centre, Waterloo, ON, Canada, (2)Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Active-Layer Soil Moisture Content Regional Variations in Alaska and Russia by Ground-Based and Satellite-Based Methods, 2002 Through 2014 (67950)
Reginald R Muskett, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Vladimir E Romanovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, United States, William Cable, Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germany and Alexander L Kholodov, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States
How to Assess Trajectories of Arctic Ponds and Lakes: a Circum-Arctic Perspective (74579)
Sina Muster1, Kurt Roth2, Fabio Cresto Aleina3, Moritz Langer4, Annett Bartsch5, Anne Morgenstern1, Guido Grosse6, Stephan Lange1 and Julia Boike1, (1)Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, (2)University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany, (3)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (4)Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Permafrost Research Section, Potsdam, Germany, (5)Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria, (6)Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Permafrost Research Section, Potsdam, Germany
Ice Regime and Melt-out Timing Cause Divergent Hydrologic Responses among Arctic Lakes (68556)
Christopher D Arp, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Benjamin M Jones, U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK, United States, Anna K Liljedahl, Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States, Kenneth M Hinkel, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, United States, Jeffrey M Welker, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, United States and Allen C Bondurant, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States
Impact of shallow water bodies on the permafrost temperature and estimation of risk of thermokarst development at the Barrow Environmental Observatory area. (70945)
Alexander L Kholodov, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Anna K Liljedahl, Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, United States, Andrew J Chamberlain, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States, Vladimir E Romanovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, United States and William Cable, Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germany
Seasonal Inundation Dynamics on the Barrow Peninsula, AK (69070)
Go Iwahana1, Cathy Jean Wilson2, Sina Muster3, Min Chen2, Joel C Rowland2 and Larry D Hinzman4, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, United States, (2)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (3)Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, (4)White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Coupled Hydro-Climatic and Lake Change Patterns in Arctic Drainage Basins (81961)
Johanna Mård, Stockholm University, Physical Geography, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden, Fernando Jaramillo, Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm, Sweden and Georgia Destouni, Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
Declining Sea Ice Extent Links Early Winter Climate to Changing Arctic Lakes (83522)
Vladimir A Alexeev, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States, Christopher D Arp, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Benjamin M Jones, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK, United States and Lei Cai, Norse Research, Bergen, Norway
An Integrated Observational and Model Synthesis Approach to Examine Dominant Environmental Controls on Active Layer Thickness (82063)
Adam Lee Atchley1, Ethan Coon2, Scott L Painter3, Dylan R Harp1 and Cathy Jean Wilson1, (1)Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, United States, (3)Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN, United States

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