V13D:
Styles of Volcanism: Forecasting, Pattern Recognition, and Monitoring Developing Eruptions I


Session ID#: 9800

Session Description:
Recent effusive eruptions in Hawaii, Iceland, and Cape Verde, as well as explosive eruptions in Chile and Japan, have emphasized problems in forecasting eruptive behavior. Variations in the amount and diversity of monitoring equipment and eruptive records at different volcanoes make reliable recognition of eruption precursors difficult. Furthermore, it is challenging to incorporate both models and observations into quantitative forecasts of developing eruptions. We welcome multi-disciplinary studies that integrate petrological, experimental, and monitoring data, along with numerical simulations of eruptive processes and statistical analysis, to predict the style of volcanism and provide quantitative forecasts for hazard mitigation, including lava flow paths and advance rates. Particularly relevant are applications of machine learning methods to recognize and classify volcanic processes, investigations of magma ascent processes that impact explosivity, and studies of lava flow emplacement. We further seek to explore how near-real time monitoring can aid emergency management and mitigate developing volcanic hazards.
Primary Convener:  Michael Cassidy, Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany
Conveners:  Hannah R Dietterich, U.S. Geological Survey, Volcano Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Kathi Unglert, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada and Einat Lev, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States
Chairs:  Einat Lev, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States, Frank Trusdell, USGS-Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hilo, United States and Michael Cassidy, Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany
OSPA Liaison:  Einat Lev, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • G - Geodesy
  • NG - Nonlinear Geophysics
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • S - Seismology
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • EGU-GMPV: European Geosciences Union – Geochemistry, Mineralogy, Petrology, and Volcanology - European Geosciences Union – Geochemistry, Mineralogy, Petrology, and Volcanology
Index Terms:

0555 Neural networks, fuzzy logic, machine learning [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
4315 Monitoring, forecasting, prediction [NATURAL HAZARDS]
8414 Eruption mechanisms and flow emplacement [VOLCANOLOGY]
8419 Volcano monitoring [VOLCANOLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Emplacement and Growth of the August 2014 to February 2015 Nornahraun Lava Flow Field North Iceland (Invited) (59562)
Thor Thordarson1, Armann Hoskuldsson1, Ingibjörg Jónsdottir1, Gro Pedersen2, Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson3, Tobias Dürig4, Morten S Riishuus3, William Moreland3, Jonas Gudnason3, Catherine R Gallagher1 and Robert A Askew3, (1)University of Iceland, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Reykjavik, Iceland, (2)University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland, (3)University of Iceland, Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute of Earth Sciences, Reykjavik, Iceland, (4)University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences, Reykjavik, Iceland
Difficulties in Forecasting Flow Paths During the 2014-2015 Lava Flow Crisis at Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaiʻi) (75932)
Tim R Orr, U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage, AK, United States, Matthew R Patrick, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, USGS, Hilo, United States, Frank Trusdell, USGS-Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hilo, United States, Edward W Llewellin, University of Durham, Durham, United Kingdom and James P Kauahikaua, USGS, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, Hilo, United States
Monitoring Inflation and Emplacement During the 2014-2015 Kilauea Lava Flow With an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (85995)
Ryan L Perroy, University of Hawaii at Hilo, Geography and Environmental Science, Hilo, United States, Nicolas Turner, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Geology and Geophysics, Honolulu, HI, United States, Kenneth A. Hon, University of Hawaii at Hilo, Geology, Hilo, United States and Victor Rasgado, Hawai Community College, Hilo, HI, United States
The Ongoing Lava Flow Eruption of Sinabung Volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia): Observations from Structure-from-Motion and Satellite Remote Sensing (75777)
Brett B Carr, Arizona State University, School of Earth & Space Exploration, Tempe, United States, Amanda B Clarke, Arizona State University, School of Earth and Space Exploration, Tempe, AZ, United States, Ramon Arrowsmith, Arizona State University, EarthScope National Office, School of Earth and Space Exploration, Tempe, AZ, United States and Loÿc Vanderkluysen, Drexel University, Department of Biodiversity, Earth & Environmental Science, Philadelphia, PA, United States
Integrated Tactical Monitoring of the 2014-2015 Eruption of Pico of Fogo, Cape Verde, by Spaceborne and Ground-based observations. (79516)
Fabrizio Ferrucci, Open University, Milton Keynes, MK7, United Kingdom, Simon John Day, University College London, London, United Kingdom and Bruno V E Faria, Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States
Lava Flow Hazard Modeling during the 2014-2015 Fogo eruption, Cape Verde (67338)
Ciro Del Negro1, Annalisa Cappello2, Gaetana Ganci2, Sonia Calvari2, Nemesio Miguel Perez3, Pedro Antonio Hernandez Perez4, Sonia Silva Victoria5 and Jeremias Cabral6, (1)INGV - National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Etna Volcano Observatory, Catania, Italy, (2)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Catania, Italy, (3)Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN), Puerto de la Cruz, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain, (4)Instituto Tecnológico y de Energías Renovables (ITER), Granadilla de Abona, Spain, (5)University of Cape Verde, Praia, Santiago, Cape Verde, (6)Serviço Nacional de Protecção Civil, Praia, Santiago, Cape Verde
Benchmarking Computational Fluid Dynamics Models for Application to Lava Flow Simulations and Hazard Assessment (63959)
Hannah R Dietterich1, Einat Lev2, Jiangzhi Chen3, Katharine V Cashman4 and Catherine Honor4, (1)U.S. Geological Survey, Volcano Science Center, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (2)Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States, (3)University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, United States, (4)University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Investigating lava-substrate interactions through flow experiments with syrup, wax, and molten basalt (79454)
M. Elise Rumpf, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States and Einat Lev, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, United States

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