H33E:
Predictions, Models, and Hydrological Information: How Much Certainty Should We Expect in an Uncertain World? II Posters
Session ID#: 9820
Session Description:
We can express uncertainty in predictions and processes including aleatory and epistemic errors, but what techniques allow us to increase our certainty? Can we both improve and increase our prediction certainties using qualitative reasoning; comparative hydrology; hydrological signatures; data fusion; and statistical techniques. In exploring the above approaches how sensitive are our outcomes to the assumptions applied? What therefore is the right balance between certainty, reliability, model inadequacy, and precision if we are trying to understand catchment processes, or predict the future, or predict extremes? We invite contributions related to novel theoretical development, new computational techniques, and real-world applications that recognize inherent uncertainties but focus on their reduction. We also particularly invite contributions that directly introduce empirical process understanding to help constrain the modeling process that can include inductive and deductive reasoning.
Primary Convener: Jim E Freer, University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Laboratory, Canmore, AB, Canada
Conveners: Tianfang Xu, Michigan State University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, United States, Doerthe Tetzlaff, University of Aberdeen, Northern Rivers Institute, Aberdeen, United Kingdom and Dr. Grey Stephen Nearing, PHD, Upstream Tech, Tuscaloosa, United States
Chairs: Doerthe Tetzlaff, University of Aberdeen, Northern Rivers Institute, Aberdeen, United Kingdom and Tianfang Xu, Michigan State University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, East Lansing, United States
OSPA Liaison: Jim E Freer, University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Laboratory, Canmore, AB, Canada
Abstracts Submitted to this Session:
Tyler J Smith, Clarkson University, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Potsdam, NY, United States, Lucy Amanda Marshall, University of New South Wales, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, NSW, Australia and Brian L McGlynn, Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States
Nans Addor1, Martyn P Clark1 and Bart Nijssen2, (1)Hydrometeorological Applications Program, Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)University of Washington, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seattle, WA, United States
Yi-Ming HU, Hui Huang and JUN WANG, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
Yogesh P Khare, University of Florida, Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States, Christopher J Martinez, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States and Rafael Munoz-Carpena, University of Florida (Visiting Professor at Public University of Navarra, Spain), Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Gainesville, FL, United States
Syed Abu Shoaib1, Lucy Amanda Marshall2 and Ashish Sharma1, (1)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (2)University of New South Wales, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Ali Tasdighi, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States and Mazdak Arabi, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States
Shervan Gharari1,2, Laura Vijai Condon3, Fabrizio Fenicia4, Markus Hrachowitz5, Patrick Matgen6 and Hubert H G Savenije1, (1)Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands, (2)Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, Luxembourg, (3)University of Arizona, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, United States, (4)EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland, (5)Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Department of Water management, Delft, Netherlands, (6)Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation, Belvaux, Luxembourg
Adam J Siade, University of Western Australia, School of Earth and Environment, Crawley, WA, Australia; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Environment, Floreat, Western Australia, Australia
Dario Del Giudice1, Carlo Albert1, Peter Reichert1 and Joerg Rieckermann2, (1)EAWAG Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland, (2)EAWAG: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Department of Urban Water Management, Duebendorf, Switzerland
Diana Carolina Fuentes Andino1, Keith Beven2, Anna Kauffeldt1, Giuliano Di Baldassarre3, Chong-Yu Xu4 and Sven Halldin1, (1)Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, (2)University of Lancaster, Lancaster, United Kingdom, (3)Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden, (4)University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Jisha Joseph1, Amey Pathak2 and Subimal Ghosh2, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India, (2)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India
Behzad Asadieh, Univ of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States and Nir Krakauer, CUNY City College, New York, NY, United States
Humberto J Vergara, PhD1, Pierre Kirstetter2, Jonathan J Gourley3, Zac Flamig1 and Yang Hong1, (1)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, OK, United States, (2)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, United States, (3)National Severe Storms Lab, Oklahoma City, United States
Amir Hossein Mazrooei, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, United States
Alessio Pugliese1, William Hastings Farmer2, Attilio Castellarin1, Stacey A Archfield3 and Richard M Vogel4, (1)University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy, (2)USGS Colorado Water Science Center Denver, Denver, CO, United States, (3)USGS Groundwater Information, Reston, VA, United States, (4)Tufts University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Medford, MA, United States
Carlos E Puente1, Mahesh Lal Maskey1, Bellie Sivakumar2 and Andrea Cortis3, (1)University of California Davis, Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, Davis, CA, United States, (2)Tsinghua University, State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Beijing, China, (3)AYASDI Inc., Houston, TX, United States
