H51P:
Advances in Hydrometeorological Extremes Forecasting: Estimation, Integrated Risk Analysis, and Applications I


Session ID#: 9838

Session Description:
Floods and droughts affect millions of people each year and their impact is expected to grow in the coming decades. This session focuses on hydro-meteorological forecasting to support decision-making in flood and drought mitigation and sub-seasonal to seasonal management of water, environmental and energy resources. Progress may come in the form of enhanced understanding of flood/drought vulnerability, improved modeling, supporting datasets, ensemble techniques, and user communication. Research topics of interest include (1) estimation of flood and drought regimes, (2) downscaling and calibration of meteorological forecasts, (3) hydrologic modeling, including parameter estimation, (4) In situ and remotely sensed data assimilation, particularly of snow and streamflow, (5) Uncertainty quantification and forecast verification, (6) Post-processing of streamflow forecasts, (7) Risk analysis of socio-economic and environmental impacts  and decision support systems, (8) forecast communication.  Sponsoring initiatives include HEPEX (http://www.hepex.org) and FloodNet (http://www.nsercfloodnet.ca).
Primary Convener:  Nathalie Voisin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Conveners:  Andrew W Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, Paulin DL Coulibaly, Professor, M. ASCE, Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada and Chandra S Pathak, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrology, Hydraulics and Coastal Community of Practice, Washington DC, DC, United States
Chairs:  Paulin DL Coulibaly, Professor, M. ASCE, Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada, Joseph Francis Kanney, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, United States, Nathalie Voisin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States and Peter F Rasmussen, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
OSPA Liaison:  Joseph Francis Kanney, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1840 Hydrometeorology [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Precipitation Extremes: Considerations for Anthropogenically-forced Future Changes (69516)
Kenneth Kunkel, CICS-NC/NCDC, Asheville, NC, United States and John Young, University of Wisconsin Madison, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI, United States
Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement (82068)
Dr. Barbara Dean Hayes, PhD, PE1, Shih-Chieh Kao2, Joseph Francis Kanney3, Kevin R Quinlan1 and Scott DeNeale2, (1)Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, United States, (2)Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN, United States, (3)US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Rockville, MD, United States
Needs to Update Probable Maximum Precipitation for Critical Infrastructure (80327)
Chandra S Pathak, United States Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrology, Hydraulics and Coastal Community of Practice, Washington DC, DC, United States and John F. England, USACE, Risk Managment Center, Denver, United States
Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities (82257)
Rouzbeh Nazari1, Katie Miller2 and Collin Hurler1, (1)Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ, United States, (2)Texas A&M University at Galveston, Marine and Coastal Environmental Sciences, Galveston, United States
Nonstationary Analysis of Annual Maximum Streamflow of Canada (68116)
Thian Yew Gan, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada and Xuezhi Tan, Sun Yat-Sen University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Guangzhou, China
Coupling Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Models to Estimate PMF (59865)
Guido Felder and Rolf Weingartner, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction (Invited) (59652)
Yang Hong1, Jonathan J Gourley2, Xianwu Xue1, Zac Flamig3 and National Weather Center HyDROS Lab, (1)The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States, (2)National Severe Storms Lab, Oklahoma City, United States, (3)University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, Norman, OK, United States
On improving ensemble forecasting of extreme precipitation using the NWS Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor (MEFP) (Invited) (81958)
Dong-Jun Seo1, James Brown2, Theresa M Modrick3, Konstantine Georgakakos3, Sunghee Kim4, Hossein Sadeghi1, Minxue He5, Brett Whitin6, Arthur Henkel7 and Robert K Hartman7, (1)University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, United States, (2)Hydrologic Solutions Limited, Southampton, United Kingdom, (3)Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA, United States, (4)University of Texas Arlington, Arlington, TX, United States, (5)California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA, United States, (6)NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center, Sacramento, United States, (7)NOAA/NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center, Sacramento, CA, United States

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