Modeling the Current and Future Distribution of Treeline Species in the Nepal Himalaya

Abstract:

Knowledge of the current distribution of treeline species is important for predicting their future distribution in the landscape. Many studies have indicated that treeline will advance with climate change. Treeline advance will result in a loss of alpine biodiversity because the advancing treeline will fragment alpine ecosystems. A species distribution modeling approach using predicted climate data can increase our understanding of how treeline species will expand their range in the future. We used the Maxent model to predict the current and future distributions of three dominant treeline species, Abies spectabilis, Betula utilis, and Pinus wallichiana, of the Nepal Himalaya. The Maxent model predicted that the distribution of treeline species will change significantly under future climate change scenarios. The range of these treeline species will expand northward or upslope in response to future climate change. The model also indicated that temperature-related climatic variables are the most important determinants of the distribution of treeline species.