Assessment of Land and Water Resource Implications of the UK 2050 Carbon Plan

Abstract:

The UK Carbon Plan presents four low-carbon energy system pathways that achieves 80% GHG emission targets by 2050, stipulated in the UK Climate Change Act (2008). However, some of the energy technologies prescribed under these pathways are land and water intensive; but would the increase demand for land and water under these pathways lead to increased competition and stress on agricultural land, and water resources in the UK?

To answer the above question, this study uses an integrated modelling approach, Foreseer^TM, which characterises the interdependencies and evaluates the land and water requirement for the pathways, based on scenarios of power plant location, and the energy crop yield projections. The outcome is compared with sustainable limits of resource appropriation to assess potential stresses and competition for water and land by other sectors of the economy.

The results show the Carbon Plan pathways have low overall impacts on UK water resources, but agricultural land use and food production could be significantly impacted. The impact on agricultural land use is shown to be mainly driven by projections for transport decarbonisation via indigenously sourced biofuels. On the other hand, the impact on water resources is mainly associated with increased inland thermal electricity generation capacity, which would compete with other industrial and public water demands. The results highlight the need for a critical appraisal of UK’s long term low-carbon energy system planning, in particular bioenergy sourcing strategy, and the siting of thermal power generation in order to avert potential resource stress and competition.