Development of a Forecasting and Data Assimilation System for Asian Dust in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Abstract:

Mineral dust, a major aerosol during springtime in East Asia, impacts various aspects including social activity, human health, climate and the ocean ecosystem. To mitigate the damage of severe dust storms, it is crucial to develop a forecasting and early warning system for Asian dust. Since 2007, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has taken the lead with 40 international partners to develop a Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) launched a numerical forecasting system for Asian dust in 2004, and completed a major renovation of the system in November 2014. In the renovation, we replaced a general circulation model (the JMA98 GCM) and dust emission scheme (based on wind velocity at 10 m) with new ones (the GSMUV GCM and a friction velocity based emission scheme). A 5-year validation exhibits that the renovation achieves better forecasting score (especially in short range forecast). Our group has resolution improvement (up to ~40 km) and implementation of data assimilation with satellite observations in the upcoming updates. A feasibility study on involving observations from Himawari-8 (JMA’s new geostationary meteorological satellite) into the system is also conducted for better forecasting skill and toward robust early warning.