Idealized Quasi-Linear Convective Storms Crossing Over Coastlines

Abstract:

As organized coastal convective storms develop over land and move over a coastal ocean, their storm-scale structures, intensity, and associated weather threats evolve. This study aims to identify and quantify the fundamental mechanisms controlling the evolution of coastal quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) as they move offshore, as well as characterize the environmental conditions that support a phase space of life cycles. Results from this work will contribute to the improved predictability of these potentially severe warm season storms.

The current work uses the Cloud Model 1 (CM1; Bryan and Fritsch 2002) to systematically study the interaction between QLCSs and marine atmospheric boundary layers (MABLs) associated with the coastal ocean in an idealized numerical framework. The initial simulations are run in 2-dimensions, with a 250 m horizontal resolution and a vertical resolution ranging from 100 m in the lowest 3000 m stretched to 250 m at the top of the 20 km domain. All simulations use the Weisman-Klemp analytic sounding as the base-state sounding profile in conjunction with an RKW-type wind profile.

To create a numerical environment representative of a coastal region, the western half of the 800 km domain is configured to represent a land surface, while the eastern half represents a water surface. A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the influence of sea surface temperature and the associated marine atmospheric boundary layer on coastal QLCSs. Sea surface temperature values are selected to represent values observed within the Mid-Atlantic Bight coastal waters during the warm season, ranging from 14^oC (‘early summer’) to 23^oC (‘late summer’). The numerical MABL is allowed to develop in time through surface heat fluxes.

This presentation will discuss preliminary results from the ‘early summer’ and ‘late summer’ SST sensitivity experiments. Preliminary simulations indicate that the ‘early summer’ QLCS moves more quickly than the ‘late summer’ storm once the systems are over the MABL. Differences in propagation speed will be discussed in the context of lifting mechanisms along the leading edge of the QLCSs. Differences in the intensity of the convection will be discussed as well.