Using Inundation and Sediment Transport Modeling To Characterize Earthquake Source Parameters from Tsunami Deposits

Abstract:

Inferring the relative magnitude of tsunamis generated during earthquakes based on the characteristics of sandy coastal deposits is a challenging problem. Using a hydrodynamic and sediment transport model, we explore whether the volume of sandy tsunami deposits can be used to infer tsunami magnitude and seafloor deformation. For large subduction zone earthquakes specifically, we are testing the hypothesis that onshore tsunami deposit volume is correlated with nearshore tsunami wave height and coseismic slip. First, we test this hypothesis using onshore tsunami deposit volume data and offshore slip for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. This test considers tsunami deposit volume and offshore slip as they vary alongshore across a wide range of sediment sources, offshore and onshore slopes, and boundary roughness conditions. Preliminary analysis suggests that a strong correlation exists between onshore tsunami deposit volume and adjacent offshore coseismic slip, so long as ample sediment were available along the coast to be eroded. Second, we apply a Delft3D tsunami inundation and sediment transport model to Stardust Bay in the U.S. Aleutian Islands, where 6 tsunamis in the last ~1700 years deposited marine sand across a coastal plain as much as 800 m inland and up to ~15 m above mean sea level. The youngest sand sheet, probably deposited by a tsunami generated during the 1957 Andreanof Islands earthquake (M_w 8.6), has the smallest sediment volume. Several older deposits have larger volumes. Models show that ≥10 m of slip on the Aleutian subduction megathrust offshore of Stardust Bay could produce the onshore sediment volume measured for the 1957 deposit. Older tsunami deposits of greater volume require up to 14 m of megathrust slip. Model sensitivity studies show that onshore sediment volume is most sensitive to megathrust slip and less sensitive to other unknowns such as width of fault rupture and roughness of inundated terrain