Research of Earthquake Potential from Active Fault Observation in Taiwan

Abstract:

We utilize GAMIT/GLOBK software to estimate the precise coordinates for continuous GPS (CGPS) data of Central Geological Survey (CGS, MOEA) in Taiwan. To promote the software estimation efficiency, 250 stations are divided by 8 subnets which have been considered by station numbers, network geometry and fault distributions. Each of subnets include around 50 CGPS and 10 international GNSS service (IGS) stations. After long period of data collection and estimation, a time series variation can be build up to study the effect of earthquakes and estimate the velocity of stations. After comparing the coordinates from campaign-mode GPS sites and precise leveling benchmarks with the time series from continuous GPS stations, the velocity field is consistent with previous measurement which show the reliability of observation. We evaluate the slip rate and slip deficit rate of active faults in Taiwan by 3D block model DEFNODE. First, to get the surface fault traces and the subsurface fault geometry parameters, and then establish the block boundary model of study area. By employing the DEFNODE technique, we invert the GPS velocities for the best-fit block rotate rates, long term slip rates and slip deficit rates. Finally, the probability analysis of active faults is to establish the flow chart of 33 active faults in Taiwan. In the past two years, 16 active faults in central and northern Taiwan have been assessed to get the recurrence interval and the probabilities for the characteristic earthquake occurred in 30, 50 and 100 years.