T51H-02
The M7.2 2010 El-Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake: How much of the Complexity Can We Explain With Our Models?
Friday, 18 December 2015: 08:15
304 (Moscone South)
Christodoulos Kyriakopoulos1, Gareth Funning1, David Douglas Oglesby1, John Mackrain Fletcher2 and Kenny J Ryan1, (1)University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States, (2)Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, Geología, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
Abstract:
The 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is one of the most complex multi-segment events ever documented in the Pacific-North America plate boundary zone, rupturing at least seven distinct segments, some of which were previously unknown. An important question for both earthquake physics and seismic hazard analysis of other complex fault systems is whether this earthquake’s complex rupture and slip pattern can be reproduced and explained with dynamic rupture models. In particular, what details of the fault geometry and of the pre-event fault stress distribution are required to allow such a rupture, with multiple stepovers and changes in dip and strike, to take place? We perform 3D Finite Element (FE) modeling of this event using realistic fault geometry and topography, and explore the effects of geometry, frictional properties, and stress assumptions on the ability to reproduce observed features of this earthquake. These models are part of a larger project that combines a 3D geodetic model of the El Mayor-Cucapah event with dynamic rupture models that are designed to match this inverted slip distribution. By combining observations with dynamic modeling in an iterative fashion, we are able to produce physically-reasonable models that match primary observations of this event.
