Slow Climate Velocities in Mountain Streams Impart Thermal Resistance to Cold-Water Refugia Across the West

Abstract:

Mountain streams provide important headwater refugia for native fish, amphibians, and other cold-water fauna globally. Although the well documented existence of such refugia indicates some level of resistance to ongoing environmental change, stream warming associated with climate change raises questions about their future persistence. Moreover, evidence exists that air temperatures are warming faster at higher elevations, and some stream temperature models predict that cold streams associated with snowmelt hydrologies will be most sensitive to air temperature increases (i.e. high ratio of stream Δ˚C:air Δ˚C). Here, we estimate stream sensitivities to climate forcing using long-term monitoring records from 927 sites across the topographically complex northwestern U.S. Sensitivity values are combined with high-resolution NorWeST stream temperature scenarios (website: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.html) to map climate velocities at 1 kilometer resolution throughout the 450,000 stream kilometers in the regional network. Our results suggest that cold mountain streams are often ‘double buffered’ against the thermal effects of climate change due to low sensitivities (0.3ºC/ºC) and steep gradients, which translated to very slow climate velocities (<0.35 km/decade for streams >3% slope) from 1968-2011 when air temperatures warmed at the rate of 0.2ºC/decade. Alternative scenarios based on aggressive air temperature warming rates (2x historical rates) and higher sensitivity values of cold streams suggests velocities will remain low in mountain streams due to the dominant effects of steep channel slope and strong local temperature gradients. These results reinforce earlier predictions from high-resolution species distribution models that show which watersheds are most likely to host resilient native trout populations across the West later this century (Climate Shield project website: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/ClimateShield.html). Although other aspects of climate change related to changing hydrology and disturbance regimes may affect stream refuges in mountainous areas, their high thermal resistance should enable many to continue serving as conservatoires of cold-water biodiversity for the foreseeable future.