Water Resources by 2100 in Mountains with Declining Glaciers

Abstract:

Future shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, and changes in the behavior of snow and ice – and possibly the quasi-disappearance of glaciers – in many mountain regions will change the quantity, seasonality, and possibly also the quality of water originating in mountains and uplands. As a result, changing water availability will affect both upland and populated lowland areas. Economic sectors such as agriculture, tourism or hydropower may enter into rivalries if water is no longer available in sufficient quantities or at the right time of the year. The challenge is thus to estimate as accurately as possible future changes in order to prepare the way for appropriate adaptation strategies and improved water governance.

The European ACQWA project, coordinated by the author, aimed to assess the vulnerability of water resources in mountain regions such as the European Alps, the Central Chilean Andes, and the mountains of Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) where declining snow and ice are likely to strongly affect hydrological regimes in a warmer climate. Based on RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations, a suite of cryosphere, biosphere and economic models were then used to quantify the environmental, economic and social impacts of changing water resources in order to assess how robust current water governance strategies are and what adaptations may be needed to alleviate the most negative impacts of climate change on water resources and water use. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the studied mountain regions, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters.

The results from the ACQWA project suggest that there is a need for a more integrated and comprehensive approach to water use and management. In particular, beyond the conventional water basin management perspective, there is a need to consider other socio-economic factors and the manner in which water policies interact with, or are affected by, other policies at the local, national, and supra-national levels.