Dynamic simulations of potential methane release from East Siberian continental slope sediments

Abstract:

Sediments deposited along continental margins of the Arctic Ocean presumably host large amounts of CH₄ in gas hydrates. Here we apply numerical simulations to assess the potential of gas hydrate dissociation and methane release from the East Siberian slope over the next 100 years. Simulations are based on a hypothesized bottom water warming of 3 °C, and an assumed starting distribution of gas hydrate. The simulation results show that methane hydrate dissociation in these sediments is relatively slow, and that gas fluxes toward the seafloor are limited by low sediment permeability. The latter is true even when sediment fractures are permitted to form through overpressure. With an initial gas hydrate distbution dictated by present-day pressure and temperature conditions, nominally 0.35 gigaton of CH₄ are released from the East Siberian slope during the first 100 years of the simulation. However, this methane discharge is reduced significantly (to ~0.05 Gt) if Arctic Ocean history is considered. This is because a lower sea level during the last glacial maximum must result in depleted gas hydrate abundance within the most sensitive region of the modern gas hydrate stability zone. In any case, even if methane reached the atmosphere, amounts coming from East Siberian slopes would be minimal compared to present-day atmospheric methane inputs from other sources.