Spatio-temporal Assessment Of The Land Use Implications Of Solar PV And Bioenergy Deployment In The UK TM Energy Model

Abstract:

The UK TIMES model (UKTM) succeeds the UK MARKAL as the underlying model of the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for long term energy system planning and policy development. It generates energy system pathways which achieve the 80% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target by 2050, stipulated in the UK Climate Change Act (2008), at the least possible cost. Some of these pathways prescribe large-scale deployment of solar PV and indigenously sourced bioenergy, which are land intensive and could result in significant land use transitions; but would this create competition and stress for UK land use?

To answer the above question, this study uses an integrated spatio-temporal modelling approach, Foreseer^TM, which characterises the interdependencies between the energy and land systems by evaluating the land required under each pathways for solar PV and bioenergy, based on scenarios of a range of PV conversion efficiencies, and energy crop yield projections. The outcome is compared with availability of suitable locations for solar PV and sustainable limits of agricultural land appropriation for bioenergy production to assess potential stresses and competition with other land use services.

Preliminary results show UKTM pathways could pose significant impact on the UK land use system. Bioenergy deployment could potentially compete with other land services by taking up a significant part of the available UK agricultural land thus competing directly with food production, most notably livestock production. For pathways with significant solar PV deployment, direct competition would not be focussed on the high quality land used for food crop production but rather for land used for livestock production and other ecosystem services.