Predictability of Sheared Tropical Cyclones

Abstract:

Predictability of the formation, rapid intensification and eyewall replacement of sheared tropical cyclones (TCs) are explored through a series of convection-permitting ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different environmental vertical wind shear, sea-surface temperature (SST), and ambient moisture conditions. It is found that the intrinsic predictability of the RI onset time is more limited with increasing shear magnitude until the shear magnitude is large enough to prevent the TC formation. Based on ensemble sensitivity and correlation analysis, the RI onset timing within one set is largely related to the vortex tilt magnitude, the diabatic heating distribution and the strength of the primary vortex circulation. Systematic differences amongst the ensemble members begin to arise right after the initial burst of moist convection associated with the incipient vortex. This difference from the randomness inherent in moist convection in terms of both location and intensity first changes the TC vortex structure subtly and then leads to the deviations in system scales and eventually in the development (and precession) of the TC. On average, a higher SST has a positive effect on the TC formation and reduces the uncertainty of development under all shear conditions, while a drier environment has a negative impact on the TCs development and either broadens the ensemble spread of RI onset time or prevents the storm from forming when the shear-induced tilt is large. Nevertheless, the uncertainty in environmental shear magnitudes may dominate over the effect of randomness in moist convection in terms of TC formation and predictability. A byproduct of tropical cyclones under vertical wind shear is the secondary eyewall formation (SEF). It is found that the eyewall formation is more often observed in TCs with moderate to high shear, which was inherently more unpredictable. The inward contraction/axisymmeterization of shear-induced asymmetric outer rainbands is the key to SEF of sheared tropical cyclones.