A24C-04
Response of Arctic Temperature to Changes in Emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers

Tuesday, 15 December 2015: 16:45
3010 (Moscone West)
Maria Sand, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway, Terje Berntsen, University of Oslo, Department of geosciences, Oslo, Norway, Knut von Salzen, CCCma, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada, Mark Flanner, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, United States, Joakim Langner, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden and David Gardiner Victor, School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diago, United States
Abstract:
There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice the global rate, largely due to ice albedo and temperature feedbacks. While deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation appear promptly and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality.

This study is the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCF emissions, taking into account BC, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile hydrocarbons (VOC), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone, their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. Using several chemical transport models we perform detailed radiative forcing calculations from emissions of these species. Geographically we separate emissions into seven source regions that correspond with the national groupings of the Arctic Council, the leading body organizing international policy in the region (the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, the rest of Europe, Russia, East and South Asia, and the rest of the world). We look at six main sectors known to account for [nearly all] of these emissions: households (domestic), energy/industry/waste, transport, agricultural fires, grass/forest fires, and gas flaring.

We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible SLCFs mitigation scenario, phased in from 2015 through 2030, can cut warming by 0.2 K in 2050.