Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics System for Space Weather Specifications, Forecasts and Applications

Abstract:

Significant progress has been made during the last two decades with regard to understanding, specifying, forecasting, and mitigating the impacts of space weather on numerous DoD and civilian activities. The progress has been made because of more and improved measurements, and advances in modeling the ionosphere-thermosphere-electrodynamics (I-T-E) system. With regard to modeling, the recent focus has been on ensemble modeling with both physics-based and data assimilation models. Our team has created a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) that is composed of seven physics-based data assimilation models for the I-T-E system that cover the globe. Five different data assimilation models cover the mid-low latitude region, so that we can conduct ensemble modeling with physics-based data assimilation models in that domain. The data assimilation models can assimilate Total Electron Content (TEC) from a constellation of satellites, bottom-side electron density profiles from digisondes, and in situ plasma densities, occultations and ultraviolet emissions from satellites. We have performed MEPS model runs for selected storm and quiet periods, and for each period we have obtained ensemble model reconstructions with different data types and amounts in order to determine how the individual data assimilation models behave. These new and interesting results will be presented.