Over Decades to Centuries, Interseismic Coupling and Deformation Rates along Subduction Zones Are Not Steady

Abstract:

It has long been assumed that once the postseismic phase of the earthquake cycle is complete, years to decades after a large earthquake, deformation and strain accumulation during the interseismic phase of the seismic cycle are uniform. Although postseismic transients have been widely documented and result from a variety of processes, they are commonly observed to decay to a “background” deformation rate. The belief was that, subsequently, this “background” interseismic strain rate (or pattern of interseismic deformation) remained steady over most of the seismic cycle [Savage and Thatcher, 1992, JGR]. More recently, researchers discovered processes and phenomena previously unappreciated along subduction zones, including slow slip events at a range of timescales, abrupt changes in the width of the locked region, and changes over time in plate coupling. Yet our understanding of the range of behavior during the interseismic period along a subduction zone is generally limited by the brevity of modern geodetic networks, which may be at most two or three decades old.

Taking advantage of high-resolution paleogeodetic data from coral microatolls in Sumatra, I show that it is the rule, not the exception, that interseismic rates vary over the course of a seismic cycle, and from one seismic cycle to the next. Although interseismic vertical deformation rates (uplift or subsidence) may be linear for decades to a century, the rate at any site may shift abruptly to a new rate and remain fixed at the new rate for decades more. The coupling pattern before one great earthquake may be dramatically different from the pattern leading up to a similar, co-located earthquake. Some sections of a megathrust may be nearly uncoupled for a century or more, yet appear fully coupled at other times and sustain large displacements during an ensuing earthquake. In general, the coral records suggest that our observations and understanding of fault behavior between earthquakes are still far from complete. They call into question the very meaning of an interseismic rate or an interseismic coupling pattern determined from a modern geodetic network over a subduction zone, when that rate or coupling pattern may reflect motion and deformation during only the most recent few decades.