Causes of the 2011-15 California drought

Abstract:

The causes of the California drought during November to April winters of 2011/12 to 2014/15 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Dry winters in California most typically arise from internal atmosphere variability but La Nina conditions can tip the odds in favor of dry conditions. The first of the four dry winters was indeed a La Nina. Winters 2012/13 and 2013/14 were however different and ENSO-neutral. However, the SST-forced models suggest that SST anomalies in the Indian and Pacific Oceans drove a wave train that placed a ridge over the northeast Pacific and North American west coast that generated dry conditions. After an El Nino failed to develop in 2014, the tropical SSTs reverted to a state similar to that in winter 2013/14 and California's wet season came to an abrupt end creating a fourth winter of drought. However, SST forcing cannot easily explain the severity of the ridge and drought conditions and constructive internal atmosphere variability might be needed to provide a full explanation. Recent idealized modeling work suggests that it is warm SSTs in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical west Pacific and cool anomalies in the central tropcial Pacific that combine to generate the responsible circulation anomalies. While the drought was driven by reduced precipitation, from the surface moisture perspective, warm conditions intensified the drought with the warmth attributable to a combination of natural variability and a long term warming trend that likely includes a human-driven component. While warming will continue to exert water stress, model projections from the CMIP5 suggest that California will experience a shorter, sharper, wet season but dynamical analysis suggests the projected mid-winter wetting is likely an overestimate. At the time of writing coupled forecast systems are predicting a strong El Nino to last through the winter. Historical records suggest that should increase the likelihood of a wetter than normal late winter (February through April) especially in southern California that, if it happens, will provide important but incomplete drought relief.