Open issues in connecting magnetospheric dynamics to their solar drivers

Abstract:

The inner heliospheric evolution of CMEs, the main drivers of Space Weather, is no longer a mystery, thanks to the STEREO observations. The initiation of these events can now be observed with cadence of tens of seconds with arc second resolution, thanks to SDO. The flow of energy required to power solar eruptions is beginning to be understood, thanks to Hinode and IRIS. Yet, there is relatively little progress in predicting the geoeffectiveness of a particular CME. Why is that? What are the issues that holding back progress in medium-term forecasting of Space Weather?
I discuss some of the issues (e.g., Bz, drag) and possible mitigation strategies in this talk.