Predictive Model of CME Impact on the Ionosphere/Plasmasphere System

Abstract:

We present simulation results from the self-consistently coupled SAMI3/RCM code on the impact of large geomagnetic storms on the ionosphere. We consider the 13 January 1988 storm as a test case; we present and compare results based on solar wind data and the predictive Chen CME model as inputs to the model. We find that the storm can significantly affect the low- to mid-latitude ionosphere, e.g., stormtime enhanced densities (SEDs). Moreover, the comparison between the data-driven results and the CME model-driven results are very good, suggesting that a predictive model of CME ejecta/magnetic clouds, although different in detail from the actual solar wind structures, can be used to forecast the ionosphere response to large geomagnetic storms.