The Role of Orbital Forcing in the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition: Continuing the Precession Verses Obliquity Debate

Abstract:

The Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) is the term used to describe the prolongation and intensification of glacial-interglacial climate cycles that initiated after 900,000 years ago. During the transition glacial-interglacial cycles shift from lasting 41,000 years to an average of 100,000 years. The structure of these glacial-interglacial cycles shifts from smooth to more abrupt ‘saw-toothed’ like transitions. In fact we argue there is shift from a bimodal climate to a tripartite climate system (see Figure). Despite eccentricity having by far the weakest influence on insolation received at the Earth’s surface of any of the orbital parameters; it is often assumed to be the primary driver of the post-EMPT 100,000 years climate cycles because of the similarity in duration. The traditional solution to this is to call for a highly nonlinear response by the global climate system to eccentricity. This ‘eccentricity myth’ is due to an artefact of spectral analysis which means that the last 8 glacial-interglacial average out at about 100,000 years in length despite ranging from 80,000 to 120,000 years. With the realisation that eccentricity is not the major driving force a debate has emerged as to whether precession or obliquity controlled the timing of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycles. Some argue that post-EMPT deglaciations occurred every four or five precessional cycle while others argue it is every second or third obliquity cycle. We review these current theories and suggest that though phase-locking between orbital forcing and global ice volume may occur and seem to primarily driven by the timing of precession; the chaotic nature of the climate system response means the relationship is not consistent through the last 900,000 years.