Assessing the long-term effects of the Sahel drought on ponds and semi-arid hydrology.

Abstract:

The Sahel underwent a severe rainfall deficit in the late 20th century, with extreme droughts in the early 70s and early 80s. This drought is the strongest multidecadal drought of the 20th century, globally. It has strongly impacted ecosystems, water availability, and populations. However, an increase of surface water has been observed during the same period: higher discharge of Sahelian rivers, and a general increase in pond's surface. This phenomenon, "less rain but more surface runoff", is referred to as the “Sahelian paradox”.

The causes of this paradox are still debated. The role of the significant increase in cropped areas, often cited for cultivated Sahel, does not hold for pastoral areas in central and northern Sahel. Degradation of vegetation as a result of the drought, soils erosion, may also play an important role.

Most Sahelian watersheds are still poorly gauged or ungauged, which makes it difficult to quantify surface runoff and its determinants.

A method is developed to estimate runoff over ungauged ponds watersheds. It is tested for the Agoufou pond in the Gourma region in Mali, where in situ data are available for 2007-2014. A 3D model is first developed to relate water volume to height surface. This model is combined with daily evaporation and precipitation, to estimate the water supply to the pond which is a proxy for runoff over the watershed. This model highlights a spectacular increase of the runoff coefficient over the last 60 years.

The method is then applied to two ungauged Sahelian watersheds in Mauritania and Niger, where pond surfaces by remote sensing are the only information. The runoff coefficients also increased in the last 60 years over these watersheds.

The runoff derived for the Agoufou pond is used to evaluate simulations with the KINEROS2 model. We discuss to what extent the changes in rain intensity, soil hydrological properties and land-use land cover are able to cause the observed change in runoff over the last 60 years.