Cross-Scale Modelling of Subduction from Minute to Million of Years Time Scale

Abstract:

Subduction is an essentially multi-scale process with time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. Modelling of such process constitutes one of the largest challenges in geodynamic modelling today.

Here we present a cross-scale thermomechanical model capable of simulating the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (millions of years) that employs elasticity, mineral-physics-constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. The model generates spontaneous earthquake sequences. The adaptive time-step algorithm recognizes moment of instability and drops the integration time step to its minimum value of 40 sec during the earthquake. The time step is then gradually increased to its maximal value of 5 yr, following decreasing displacement rates during the postseismic relaxation. Efficient implementation of numerical techniques allows long-term simulations with total time of millions of years. This technique allows to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles.

We observe various deformation patterns during modelled seismic cycle that are consistent with surface GPS observations and demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional ideas, the postseismic deformation may be controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge, starting within only a few hours after the great (M>9) earthquakes. Interestingly, in our model an average slip velocity at the fault closely follows hyperbolic decay law. In natural observations, such deformation is interpreted as an afterslip, while in our model it is caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of mantle wedge with viscosity strongly varying with time. We demonstrate that our results are consistent with the postseismic surface displacement after the Great Tohoku Earthquake for the day-to-year time range. We will also present results of the modeling of deformation of the upper plate during multiple earthquake cycles at times of hundred thousand and million years and discuss effect of great earthquakes in changing long-term stress field in the upper plate.