Surface Temperature Trends in the Arctic and the Antarctic from AVHRR and In Situ Data

Abstract:

The earliest signals of a climate change are expected to be observed in the polar regions in part because of the high reflectively of snow and ice. Because of general inaccessibility, there is a paucity of in situ data and hence the need to use satellite data to observe the large-scale variability and trends in surface temperature in the two regions. The sensor with the longest satellite record on temperature has been the NOAA/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) that has provided continuous thermal infrared data for more than 33 years. The results of analysis of the data show that there is indeed a strong signal coming from the Arctic with the trend in surface temperature (for the region > 64°N) being 0.6°C per decade which is about 3 times the global trend of 0.2°C per decade for the same period. It appeared surprising when the results from a similar region (> 64 °S) in the Antarctic show a much lower trend and comparable to the global trend. The primary source of error in the temperature data is cloud masking associated with the similar signatures of clouds and snow/ice covered surfaces. However, the derived AVHRR data show good consistency with in situ data with standard deviation less than 1°C. The AVHRR time series has also been compared and showed compatibility with data from the Aqua/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) which have been available from 2000 to the present. Some differences in the trends from the two hemispheres are expected because of very different geographical environments in the two regions. The relationships of the trend with the atmospheric global circulation in the north, as defined by the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and that in the south, as defined by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), have been observed to be generally weak. The occurrences of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and ENSO were also studied and not considered a significant factor. It is intriguing that the observed variability in surface temperature in the two hemispheres are highly correlated with the variability of the sea ice cover which also shows a strong climate signal in the Arctic.