Merging Field Measurements and High Resolution Modeling to Predict Possible Societal Impacts of Permafrost Degradation

Abstract:

A general warming trend in permafrost temperatures has triggered permafrost degradation in Alaska, especially at locations influenced by human activities. Various phenomena related to permafrost degradation are already commonly observed, including increased rates of coastal and riverbank erosion, increased occurrences of retrogressive thaw slumps and active layer detachment slides, and the disappearance of tundra lakes. The combination of thawing permafrost and erosion is damaging local community infrastructure such as buildings, roads, airports, pipelines, water and sanitation facilities, and communication systems. The potential scale of direct ecological and economical damage due to degrading permafrost has just begun to be recognized. While the projected changes in permafrost are generally available on global and regional scales, these projections cannot be effectively employed to estimate the societal impacts because of their coarse resolution. Intrinsic problems with the classical “spatial grid” approach in spatially distributed modeling applications preclude the use of this modeling approach to solve the above stated problem. Two types of models can be used to study permafrost dynamics in this case. One approach is a site-specific application of the GIPL2.0 permafrost model and another is a very high (tens to hundred meter) resolution spatially distributed version of the same model. The results of properly organized field measurements are also needed to calibrate and validate these models for specific locations and areas of interest. We are currently developing a “landscape unit” approach that allows practically unlimited spatial resolution of the modeling products. Classification of the study area into particular “landscape units” should be performed in accordance with the main factors controlling the expression of climate on permafrost in the study area, typically things such as vegetation, hydrology, soil properties, topography, etc. In areas with little topographic relief, vegetation is often a good indicator and it typically integrates other important permafrost factors (e.g. hydrology and soil properties) as vegetation has specific requirements for establishment and growth. The principles of this approach and several examples of its application will be presented.